Blain’s Morning Porridge, January 5th 2026 – Another Judder in Geopolitics.
“When America brings its full capabilities to bear, no tyrant is beyond reach.”
Concepts about global law and order were left by the wayside over the weekend – Trump’s administration delivered what it said it would in terms of America First, Western Hemisphere focus. Do Venezuela and Iran raise or diminish the risks of Global Conflict in 2026. What comes next?
Happy New Year. Let’s hope it is a good and prosperous one…. The signals are looking mixed.
My bear-scenario outlook for 2026 markets was based around a significantly higher risk of global conflict destabilising the global economy – the potential for an even larger shock than Covid. Have the events in Venezuela and Iran over the weekend caused that perception of risk to rise or fall? That will become clearer in coming days.
What will President Trump’s surgical removal of President Maduro from office in Venezuela, of the rising prospect sfor regime change from internal dissent in Iran, mean for global trade and geopolitical risks? How will markets account for yet another geopolitical judder moment? Will they even care?
Nothing should have surprised us about the Maduro takedown. It played to all the themes Trump has quite openly exposed around Project 2025, America First, his new “Don-Roe” Doctrine of American hegemony over the Western hemisphere, and in the recent National Security Strategy release. He is not wasting time on difficult and destabilising regime change – effectively telling Maduro’s cronies in power they have the choice to kow-tow and follow US direction, or be removed with prejudice. Last night they appeared to be falling into line.
Trump’s actions would have shocked us a decade ago. His disdain for the US constitution and political system, international law, and diplomatic niceties horrifies many. The World has changed. This is the new age of the authoritarian state.
But let’s not be blind-sided by how Trump’s actions shattered any illusions we retained about America, freedom, democracy and justice. The reality is the US military just proved how supremely effective it is, able to mount an operation no other nation could even contemplate. The complexity of integrating and executing a plan combining 150 aircraft, human, signals and satellite intelligence, and special forces insertions, was stunning.
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