A SPECIAL REPORT:
Last December, I published a 23-page report predicting what would happen in 2025 — treasury yields, inflation, GDP, housing supply. Today, I'm grading myself in public.
Predicted 10Y Treasury: 4.1% → Actual: 4.11%
Predicted Seattle Permits: -36% → Actual: -50%
Predicted Inflation: 2.5% → Actual: 2.7%
Most predictions were directionally right. Some were wrong. And 2025 threw curveballs nobody saw coming — $40B in wildfire losses by Week 2, a 43-day government shutdown, and a GDP path that broke every model.
This video covers:
→ The Six Forces scorecard (with grades)
→ Black swan events that blindsided everyone
→ The behavioral finance of 2025 (anchoring, recency bias, narrative fallacy)
→ What I'm watching for 2026
00:00 - What I Predicted
02:30 - The Six Forces Scorecard
12:00 - What Nobody Saw Coming
18:00 - Behavioral Finance Audit
26:00 - The Denver Deal I Didn't Do
30:00 - 2026 Watchlist
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