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Major Key: Being Right At The RIght TIme
Going back over my trades from last year
Where I excel with timing is in swing trades and credit spreads. My batting average was exceptional by my standards. I definitely left some money on the table with a few trades, but all-in-all pretty good profits.
My Achilles heel has been timing with naked options.
What I’ve noticed is even when probability is on my side and hindsight shows I would have been successful...I’m usually too early.
That’s the one thing with options. You can be right, but the money is made when your timing matches your theory. If it doesn’t, time decay eats away until you sell out or the option expires worthless
With options, it pays to have more time to see your theory true or false. Less time = more risk. Even though the contracts are cheaper with less time, the probability of loss goes way up.
Here it is. Wanna crush it at options? Understand the value of time. Boom
So this year I will continue my work with swing trading and credit spreads to continue growing the trading account.
But to improve my batting average with naked options (calls and puts) I will begin pricing options with more time to allow my theories to play out
What I’m looking at today:
NFLX - it was on the watchlist yesterday and had some good earnings. Look for a continuation
AMD - some buyers came in yesterday. Let’s see if they’re still enthusiastic tomorrow
DKNG - Sellers trying their best. If they don’t show up tomorrow, expecting buyers to jump on news of iGaming, mobile sports book
ZM - did as expected
MA, V - waiting for buyers to come in
BABA - moved as expected
FB - h.o running up into earnings
Adding KO to long term
Outro:
