How do you lead when the future offers no clear answers, only unpredictable curves? In this episode, Vishal unpacks the essentials of decision-making under deep uncertainty using practical, research-backed frameworks like Scenario Planning and Robust Decision-Making. Learn why clarity in chaos doesn’t come from certainty, instead from preparation. With three actionable steps and one leadership question you can take straight to your next meeting, this episode is your toolkit for strategic thinking when forecasts fail.
References:
1) Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Management: https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266(199708)18:7<509::AID-SMJ882>3.0.CO;2-Z
2) Decision-making under deep uncertainty: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision-making_under_deep_uncertainty
3) Scenario Planning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning
4) Robust Decision Making (RDM): https://www.rand.org/topics/robust-decisionmaking.html
5) Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty: https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP51619.html
6) Assumption-Based Planning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assumption-based_planning
Music Credit: Switch It Up, performed by Silent Partner, from the YouTube Studio Audio Library