One of the indicators of how the economy is doing is the so-called leading indicator of the business cycle. The cycle can be in an upswing, peak, downswing, or trough and the leading indicator is a predictor of where in the cycle we might be in the next 6 to 12 months. The latest figure has fallen by 0.7% on a month-on-month basis and by 8.5% over the year. This indicates a downturn by next year.
* The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.
