Will CLSK stock hit $100 per share in 2022? Today we model CleanSpark's Bitcoin mining operations 2022 revenue and profitability. These are my personal projections based on my assumptions.
Feel free to copy my excel sheet to your own and play around with the numbers. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19BqqinRb1-4E0eBTqYdzSvyhM994qgH5e-pikAzvghk/edit?usp=sharing
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Here is why I think market is being overly fearful with CLSK and, flat out, wrong:
- At $8.30, their market cap is $344M.
- Their Total Assets equal $317M (while Total Liabs are only $11M). Trust me when I say this, CleanSpark is not worth less than its book value.
- November production was 218 BTC. Multiply that by 12 (flat analysis) and you get 2,616 BTC. With a $50k BTC (assuming BTC doesn't appreciate, flat analysis), that's worth $130.8M of expected revenue in 2022.
- I expect mining difficulties to increase over the next year (unpredictable). However, this should be offset by the reception of $88M in mining equipment, which will increase mining capacity by 63% over the upcoming year. Assuming that mining difficulties don't increase, CleanSpark should bring in $213.2M in annual revenues.
Analysis:
- Assuming BTC stays at $50k all year, I expect CleanSpark to bring in between $150-213M in mining revenue next year. That equates to a forward P/S between 1.82 and 2.58.
- Assuming it cost them $10k to mine each #Bitcoin (right now, it's $5-7k if I remember correctly), that means that #CleanSpark will bring in $120-170M in gross profit next year. - Assuming FY 2021 operating expenses and taxes expand by 30% ($78M * 130% = $101.4M), net profit for FY 2022 will be between $18.6-68.6M. That puts #CLSK at a forward P/E between 5.6 and 20.8.
If I had to take my best guess, these are my assumptions for CLSK moving forward :
- 70k BTC (average for the year)
- 50% of mining deposits delivered
- 75% mining difficulty increase
- 50% Operating Expenses increase
- 40 P/E once meaningful profitability is achieved
- 35% increase of shares outstanding (considering that they can sell their BTC to fund the purchases of new miners)
According to these assumptions, CleanSpark stock could be trading between $62.71 and $114.29 per share by the end of 2022.
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