This is no bueno. Should we sell our stocks in anticipation for a stock market crash, or double down? How am I reacting to this?
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People are freaking out because of the potential for more contractionary monetary policy than expected. The market is in panic mode. Since the 1950's, there have been 39 official corrections in the S&P. Only SEVEN have lasted more than one year. The ongoing correction in the S&P 500 is at (give or take) 105 calendar days. And for small caps, we've been in a correction for over 15 months. Take a second to think about what that means... I'm just as frustrated with this market as you are but here's a quick reminder that today's feelings don't matter. Because today's feelings are of short term nature. So let's try to get out of our heads and consider what the big picture really holds for us. We happen to be in a disgusting market right now but that doesn't mean it'll last forever.
Let’s think about this rationally. Right now, I think the market is completely ignoring fundamentals. I'm keeping a cool head. I'm looking at the data. And I'm seeing is that the market is overreacting. I also believe that the North American economy is robust. I think that supply chain shortages will subside throughout 2022, which will bring deflationary pressures on goods.
Do not give up. Especially not now with the end of the bear market so near. By summertime, we could be up +50% for all I know. So if there's anything, try holding onto that thought. That the future will be brighter. Hope. And further than that, try embracing this mentality, because these opportunities don't come very often. One day you’ll look back and wish that you had bought more.
By many accounts it seems to me that inflation is on its way to calming down, which will remove the need to raise rates aggressively. Once that becomes clear, risk on capital will likely flow back into the growth sector. Unless we see mega caps sell off another 50%, the quickest stocks in the market to rebound will be the small caps.
One thing is for certain, I will paying VERY close attention to the markets in the upcoming days and weeks. Huge discounts might be on the way, and I want to be ready to jump on those opportunities when they happen. When numbers don't matter anymore, that's when you know that you are in an irrational market.
I'm not going to let short term noise like this shake me out of my positions. For me, buying these discounted stocks FOR THE LONG-TERM is a no brainer. Focus on high conviction stocks
