The long-anticipated CDC guidance on schools was released on February 12. This is the latest event in what has been, up to this point, among the most politically charged and scientifically contested aspects of the COVID-19 response. In its guidance, the agency calls for K–12 schools in particular to reopen as soon as possible, noting that with safety precautions in place such as physical distancing, contact tracing and mask-wearing, many have been able to open safely, and stay open. The report also cites evidence, also referenced in a recent article in the Journal of the American Medical Association authored by CDC staff, that school attendance in this age range is not a primary driver of community transmission, and that declining infection rates are possible while keeping schools open.
However, the levels of community transmission used as benchmarks have drawn criticism, not least because they seem to not reflect the latest evidence on what is achievable with safeguards, and by implication suggest almost all schools in the U.S. should remain in remote or hybrid forms for the immediate future, in spite of the evidence.
Much has been written arguing for and against urgent reopening, and this latest round of debates reflect a year’s worth of very public debates. Leaving aside these discussions, we think it is worth pausing and reflecting on the failures these very debates have brought into bold relief. Simply put, the arguments about school openings during COVID-19 reflect, to our mind, an ongoing failure of science and society, in which academics and policy makers share responsibility.
First, on the science. As the CDC guidance makes abundantly clear, evidence to date points to COVID posing a low risk to children, with the risk of spread among young children also low, if well-managed, in the school setting. It is important to remember that the level of safety we adjudge as “safe” is a relative thing, and unknowns remain about the long-term effects of COVID; however, we know that among children ages 5–14, the COVID-19 mortality rate has been reported at around one per million. To put this in perspective, by contrast, transport accidents account for 15 times that mortality rate. Children in that age range are almost 10 times more likely to die by suicide, than die from COVID-19 (see Figure).
One can reasonably surmise that it has been far more dangerous throughout the past year for children to get to school than it has been for them to be in school.
