In this special year-end episode, Jonathan and Douglas look into the crystal ball for 2026 before facing the music on their 2025 calls. We’re shaking up the format this year: 2026 Big Bets come first, followed by the definitive marking of last year’s homework.
Part 1: The 2026 Predictions 🔮
We break down our high-conviction bets for the year ahead across five key pillars:
- The Markets: Will the momentum continue, or are we due for a correction?
- AI: Moving from "efficiency" to "autonomy" - what happens next?
- Tech: The hardware and platforms set to dominate the next 12 months.
- Society: Cultural shifts, the "proof of personhood" movement, and beyond.
- Politics: Geopolitics, trade, and the evolving landscape of the Trump administration.
Part 2: Marking the 2025 Homework 📝
We revisit our 2025 predictions to see who actually came out on top. It was a year of "shadow wars" and "Trump bumps." Highlights include:
- The Big Hits: We correctly called the "shadow war" on European subsea infrastructure and the rise of a new micromobility category - the "Enclosed Quadricycle".
- The AI Shift: Our prediction on AI legal advice eroding prices hit home, with major platforms slashing costs by 60%.
- Market Volatility: While we were directionally right on the "up and to the right" market, the "Liberation Day" tariff crash in April 2025 kept us from hitting our ambitious Dow and S&P targets.
- Corporate Winners: Alphabet was a standout, soaring over 60% as Waymo moved toward independence with a $100B+ valuation.
- The "Misses": From the Ukraine stalemate to the delayed launch of GTA 6 and the "iPhone Fold," we own up to where our timing was off.
Who won the 2025 crown, and who is doubling down for 2026? Tune in to find out!
