The drumbeat of coverage on commercial real estate loan trouble continues this week as strong jobs numbers fuel more uncertainty about inflation and economic strength, and while the multifamily market has shown stable rent growth, there is a high amount of regional variability. With the exception of Texas markets and the indefatigable growth of Miami, a number of Sunbelt markets have had negative rent growth, while markets in the Midwest and Northeast have much stronger rent growth as a group, especially more affordable markets with low rent-to-income ratios.
Sources discussed in this episode:
Gray Capital: “Loan Maturities and Distress in the Multifamily Market” - https://www.graycapitalllc.com/report/
Urban Land Institute: “ULI's Spring Real Estate Economic Forecast Projects Slowed GDP Growth As Inflation Decreases” - https://americas.uli.org/real-estate-economic-forecast-spring-2023/
Apartment List: “As the Rental Market Cools, These Cities Are Cheaper Today than One Year Ago” - https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/annual_rent_growth_tracker
Yardi Matrix: “National Rent Report, May 2023” - https://www.yardimatrix.com/publications/download/file/4053-MatrixMultifamilyNationalReport-May2023
The Wall Street Journal: “Interest-Only Loans Helped Commercial Property Boom. Now They’re Coming Due.” - https://www.wsj.com/articles/interest-only-loans-helped-commercial-property-boom-now-theyre-coming-due-c3754941
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DISCLAIMERS: This podcast does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This podcast is not an offer to invest.
