13/08/2025 FASCINATING STRATEGIC FORECASTS 2025: THE WORLD AT CROSSROADS (GIST OF THE PODCAST)
The geopolitical climate in 2025 is marked by rising nuclear tensions, with the world entering a precarious “third nuclear age.” The expiry of the New START treaty in 2026, along with Russia’s non-compliance and China’s non-engagement, signals an era with unchecked nuclear arsenals and potential proliferation in nations like Saudi Arabia and South Korea. The Ukraine war might near exhaustion, but peace depends on the U.S., particularly under a Trump administration, whose approach could either stabilize or embolden Russia. Europe will grapple with Trump’s foreign policy, boosting its own defense funding amidst fragmentation. In the Middle East, conflict endures but may de-escalate, with Saudi Arabia and Gulf states urging restraint to safeguard economic goals. Myanmar's junta, weakened by defections and Chinese maneuvering, nears collapse, while Sudan’s civil war intensifies. The South China Sea may ignite into conflict, especially involving the Philippines, amid rising Chinese aggression and doubts about U.S. reliability.
Defense industries are booming, with NATO and EU funding defense startups and innovations like maintenance-tech. Despite increased military spending, most NATO nations will miss the 2% GDP target.
On the migration front, rising instability and economic hardship drive migration, while harsh crackdowns—such as El Salvador’s “iron fist” approach—gain political traction across Latin America.
Economically, global growth slows to 2.5%, with Europe recovering modestly and emerging markets stalled by climate and trade barriers. High debt levels constrain public spending despite falling inflation. Property market turbulence looms with $2.1 trillion in loan maturities. A Trump-led U.S. may trigger trade wars. The dollar remains dominant, despite China’s efforts to internationalize the yuan. IPO markets stay sluggish due to rate uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
India shines, overtaking Japan to become Asia’s second-largest economy, benefiting from Western firms relocating amid China tensions. Indonesia, however, risks stagnation due to fiscal missteps and lack of reforms.
In technology, AI revolutionizes drug development, but strains power grids. Nvidia’s Blackwell chips power new data centers, demanding liquid cooling and clean energy. Gulf states are major AI investors. Green technologies like sodium-ion and iron-air batteries, compressed gas storage, and green hydrogen (led by China) advance rapidly. EVs surge, especially in China. Fusion energy sees promising tests.
Culturally, micro-dramas soar, cancer vaccines show promise, and Jane Austen’s 250th birthday sparks global celebration. Restitution of looted artifacts accelerates.
Environmentally, climate challenges deepen, and geoengineering becomes a serious—though risky—option. Infrastructure spending surges for renewable energy and roads, though data centers pressure power grids. Volcano preparedness remains inadequate despite global risk.
In politics, Poland and Germany face key elections. Asia’s democracies show signs of weakening amid strongman politics. Finally, space warfare risks rise, with Russia’s nuclear threats alarming global powers. Widespread airspace restrictions increase airline costs and disruption globally.
This snapshot captures a turbulent yet transformative year ahead across geopolitics, economy, innovation, and society.
