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As the nature of conflict changes, so too does its periodicity and duration. There have been many long, nearly forever, wars - The Reconquista, 774 years; Roman-Persian Wars, 681 years; The Germanic Wars, 588 years; Arab-Byzantine Wars, 400 years; The Ottoman Wars, 573 years; The Philippines Revolt, 377 years; Mexican Indian Wars, 414 years. Many wars continue today, especially civil wars, e.g. Myanmar from 1949, Afghanistan from 1978, Somalia from 1991, Syria from 2011. Some would argue that in modern warfare the use of overwhelming force by major states precludes long-term conventional conflict. Others would argue that chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats encourage long-term conflict. Cyber aggression, terrorism, and piracy are perennial, but arguments abound that somehow these are not ‘real’ wars.
In order to explore this topic with a view to gaining insight into when a conflict is due to be short, or when a conflict is likely to persist, CityForum and Z/Yen have assembled an unusual panel of a Vice Admiral, former Chair of NATO Parliamentary Assembly, and a wildly-popular speculative fiction author, along with a City economist and scientist. The exploration will centre on trying use insights to gauge the likely duration of the Russo-Ukrainian war since 2014. Here, our speculative fiction author will provide an unusual perspective, that of narrative from an alternative universe featuring the continuous Crimean War.
The historic Crimean War, so named as most of the fighting took place on the Crimean Peninsula, was waged from 1853 to 1856. It began when Russia's Czar Nicolas I, claiming to be protecting Orthodox Christians, took advantage of a demonstrably weak Ottoman-Turkish empire and invaded the principalities of Moldavia and Walachia in July 1853. In October the Ottoman-Turks retaliated by declaring war on Russia. Austria was concerned over its economic lifeline, the Danube River, which flowed through and terminated in the occupied provinces. Britain was concerned over its trades routes through Turkey into India. France simply wanted revenge for its sound defeat at the hands of the Russians in 1812. It wasn't long before they were drawn into the Russo-Turkish conflict. The war fighting raged for several years, and contained the famous "Charge of the Light Brigade" which ended the Battle of Balaclava on 24 October 1854. Over the winter of 1854-55 the allied French, British and Turkish forces were joined by the Italian kingdom of Sardinia, who wanted British and French support in expelling Austria from Italy. The Treaty of Paris, signed 30 March 1856, ended the war. Among terms of the treaty, Russia was forbidden to sail a fleet on the Black Sea, the Turks had to promise better treatment for their Christian subjects, and the territory at the mouth of the Danube was returned to Turkey. An overwhelming majority of casualties in the war died from disease and poor medical care. Florence Nightingale played a big role with a more scientific approach to nursing. The war was the first to employ armoured warships, submarine mines, intercontinental telegraph, and war photography. It gave rise to the Victoria Cross, Britain's highest award for military valour. But what if the Crimean War continued? In Jasper Fforde’s Nextian Universe, the Crimean War never ends, continuing for some 168 years, spanning some seven books, The Eyre Affair, Lost In A Good Book, The Well Of Lost Plots, Something Rotten, Thursday Next: First Among Sequels, One Of Our Thursdays Is Missing, and The Woman Who Died a Lot
