How often did WRs drafted as top 5/ top 12 and top 24 WRs actually finish there?
Of the WRs who are fantasy relevant- Where are they drafted?
How often does drafting WR pay off? How predictive is WR
0:45 Intro
3:30 WR Hit rates are down
4:00 Wide Receivers who scored 300+ pts in PPR
- Historical data vs 2019/ expectations going forward
- Last year was a boom this year was a bust at the top
- What happened in 2019
6:45 Who could climb into the 300+ PPR club next season?
- Eliminating some/ ceiling/ confluence of events needed/ league trends
- We know the usual suspects set for re-entry
- TB has two of em’
- Cooper Kupp/ Robert Woods
- Amari Cooper/ 2020 ADP vs lineup killer
- Tyler Lockett
14:30 Michael Thomas WR 1 overall by the widest margin ever
- Randy Moss came the closest
- WR 1 in all formats for 2020
16:20 Wide Receivers who scored 250+ pts in PPR
- Historical data vs 2019
- Northern Hemisphere of WRs are down
17:20 ADP for this tier
- Zero WRs drafted outside the top 7 rounds of FF drafts hit 250 PPR pts
- Allen Robinson is back
18:58 Player Discussion for elite this years elite group of WRs
Chris Godwin YAC vs AY in TB/ Godwin’s 2019 win rate 3rdhighest at WR
Julio Jones NOT business as usual
- TD drought
- ATL historically pass heavy creating a Julio mirage?
- Julio’s last 3 games/ target share vs career avg
- Air yards psyche out
Cooper Kupp still dynasty buy?
Keenan Allen ceiling capped
- WR vs RB targets for LAC
- Non priority in red zone?/ Mike Williams 2020 ironic regression
- Phillip Rivers fewest TD passes in the last 13 years
Allen Robinson only player taken outside WR 30 to hit 250 PPR pts
31:50 wrapping up the outlook on top 2 tiers at WR
- These are the tiers we concentrate on
- Historical data vs 2019 upper tiers
33:25 Wide Receiver grouping for 200+ PPR pts
- only slight uptick in volume of WRs
- tiny separation inside this tier
- 25 hit 200+ but 17 guys were below 250
- Wide receiver is deep
- 40-50 usable WRs each season
- WR change comes at the top!
37:55 Fantasy points Hit Rates takeaways
- How many WRs score 200+ ect
- Chaos is baked in
39:10 Hit Rates for ADP buckets
39:40 Top 5 WR hit rates
- Hits/ busts
- Discrepancy with hit rates at Top 5
41:26 Top 12 WR hit rates
- Hit rates and where they were drafted
- Historical data vs 2019
- Ambiguity at the top of the WR group
43:44 top 24 WR hit rates
- Better than top 12!
- Draft philosophy rant
- Top 12 and top 24 separation
46:25 FF Busts
- Bust rates for top 5 WRs
- Ju-Ju biggest bust of the year
48:00 Bust rates for top 12 WRs
- Outlier season in last half decade
50:05 Bust rates for top 24 WRs
- Historically twice as high
- Busts inside top 24 overall is high
- Wide receiver trending to less predictive?
50:55 Fantasy disappoints
- Top 5’s who finished outside top 12
- Top 12’s outside top 30
- Top 24’s outside top 40
55:37 OUTRO
