How do polls keep underestimating Trump's support - three elections in a row? On this episode, my guest Brett Loyd and I discuss how polling works and why it's hard to perfectly predict an election outcome when we're so evenly divided 50/50. We also ponder if Republicans and Democrats will learn the correct lessons from the one poll that matters - how Americans voted on election day (spoiler alert, we're not sure they'll learn the right lessons).
President and CEO of The Bullfinch Group, Brett Loyd is a leading researcher and campaign strategist, being one of the few political operatives to accurately forecast the 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections.
With his methods unswayed by external influences, Brett has built a reputation as a trusted and insightful partner to presidential, senatorial, congressional, and gubernatorial candidates; national political committees; and corporate and issue campaigns. His unbiased and data-first approach has delivered research, insights, analysis, and recommendations that have led to wins from the highest levels of U.S. campaign politics to local policy initiatives, and among his trade association, NGO, and Fortune 500 clients’ efforts.
Notes:
Nate Silver - There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state
NPR - A researcher explains why polls failed to predict a Trump victory
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/09/nx-s1-5183094/a-researcher-explains-why-polls-failed-to-predict-a-trump-victory
