2023 NFL Week 13: All Busted Up
Last week was brutal—no need to rehash our fails. But needless to say, we are not quitting our day jobs anytime soon. Who knows where we are on Circa Millions? We spiraled and lost our way down on the list of contestants in the Westgate SuperContest. But we are #3 in our local casino, the Snoqualmie Casino, Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘em. We are not quitters, so we will not give up and hope for a good bounce back.
Leans for Week 13 NFL:
Tennesee Titans:
The Titans were my favorite game last week, and I am def leaning toward them this week. They are playing the Colts in a divisional game. I know what you are thinking. Stay away from divisional games, but I like this one. Not only does Mike Vrabel do well as an underdog (+1 or +2, depending on the book), they are at home. The team overall is looking more revitalized and ready to tackle (no pun intended) and win this game against the Colts. Although my math model didn’t point to this game, my instincts do. And my math model stunk last week anyway, so let’s go with the gut on this one.
Pittsburgh Steelers:
I heard a lot of sharps talk about Arizona. Listening to those wise guys really makes me question my #s, math, and sanity. While Kyler Murray has breathed some life into this team, I still cannot take the points on Az. The Steelers have been playing really well. That may be because they ditched Matt Canada, their offensive coordinator. Because they are looking better offensively. And I have the math on this valued a lot higher than a -5.5. And for some reason, Az is a public dog this week. Away, public dogs statistically take big dumps.
Washington Commanders:
Every time I take a chance on the Commanders, I get burned. But my math does point to Wa covering this 9.5 spread. Is Sam Howell going to have the game of his life? Hmm, probably not. But Miami’s defense is not that good, so if Howell throws some bullets, they could keep this game to a cover for Wa. Plus, in Landover, Maryland, it might rain. Although, I don’t know if the mid-50s is considered cold for those Miami boys. Actually, I think I might already be talking myself out of this one. But ugly bets can cover.
Houston Texans:
This looks like a good one for the Texans. Denver is trending up. But you know that Denver is not interested in this game. They absolutely need to win next week's game against the Chargers. This is a look-ahead game for Denver.
Green Bay Packers:
After that behind-kicking GB gave Detroit on Thanksgiving, I can see why they are a public dog. I just really like the points on this one. I don’t expect the Packers to win, but it is Sunday primetime, where anything can happen. And getting 6 points for GB looks pretty darn good. I know public dogs usually dump, but they are at home, and it's Sunday night with all eyes on them.
Philadelphia Eagles vs San Fran 49ers:
I initially loved the points on the Eagles at home. But all the money and bets and even sharps are on the 49ers. Public favorites always worry me. But from the casino’s view, if the Eagles cover, then they make a whole lot of money. And we all know the books make the $ over the average bettor. Both teams have no reason to win this game, per se. Maybe for a first-round bye, these teams may want to win. But the 49ers must stay healthy to focus on the Seahawks next week. And the Eagles need to get healthy and focus on Dallas next week. So this game is a look ahead for both teams. So I think taking the opposite of the fav might prove a nice cover. Or just may sit back and watch this one.
Good luck to all of you and your bets and games! WA DAWGS
