Episode Overview
In this episode, we dive into the key insights from the Calgary Real Estate Board's (CREB) 2025 Housing Forecast and Alberta’s Economic Outlook for the year ahead. We’ll explore how economic trends, population shifts, and evolving market dynamics are shaping the housing market.
Strong Housing Demand
- Alberta’s growing population, job gains, falling interest rates, and improved housing supply options are keeping housing demand above long-term averages.
- Despite slower migration and competition from newly built homes, home resales are projected to exceed 26,000 units—20% above long-term trends.
Market Segment Trends
- Rental Market
- Detached Homes
- Resale Listings
Price Growth Dynamics
- Higher-Priced Homes: Slower price growth due to competition from newly built luxury properties.
- Lower-Priced Homes: Stronger price growth fueled by steady demand and limited supply.
Overall Market Balance
- With increased inventory, the market is expected to stabilize, leading to more balanced price growth and absorption rates compared to the past three years.
Economic Strengths
- Energy Sector Growth: High energy prices, favorable exchange rates, and increased oil production (aided by the TMX pipeline) are fueling Alberta’s thriving economy.
- Population Growth: Rapid in-migration from other provinces and countries is boosting housing demand and construction.
- Economic Diversification: Investments in renewable energy, carbon capture, food production, and artificial intelligence are supporting growth.
Challenges & Opportunities
- Potential U.S. Tariffs: Could slow economic growth if implemented.
- Interest Rates: If the Bank of Canada lowers rates, Alberta could see a surge in economic activity and housing demand.
- Optimistic Projections: Without U.S. tariffs, Alberta’s economy could grow nearly twice as fast as current forecasts, further boosting migration and housing demand.
Final Thoughts
The 2025 real estate market and Alberta’s economy are poised for growth, though challenges like slower migration and potential U.S. tariffs may create headwinds. Even so, strong population growth, economic diversification, and improving market balance offer a positive outlook for the year ahead.
Resources Mentioned:
- Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) 2025 Forecast
- ATB Economics Projections
- Insights on Alberta's economic diversification efforts
Key Takeaways: CREB Housing Market Forecast 2025Economic Summary: Alberta in 2025
