- Growth Drivers: The high end of the revenue guidance is contingent on customers building capacity for AI. The company also anticipates increased demand due to more advanced logic and memory processes for HPC and HBM.
- "For ASML, we anticipate that an increased number of critical lithography exposure for these advanced logic and memory processes will drive increasing demand for ASML products and services."
- Technology Milestones & Product Updates:
- Low NA EUV (NXE:3800E): Demonstrated full system specification in the factory, achieving 220 wafers per hour throughput with a record overlay. On track to deliver and start upgrades in the first half of 2025.
- High NA EUV: Two systems completed customer acceptance with over 10,000 wafers run and positive feedback. A third system was shipped for installation and qualification.
- Deep UV: Shipped the first NXT:870B (KrF) system capable of over 400 wafers/hour and the NXT:2150i (immersion DUV) system achieving over 310 wafers per hour and overlay performance of equal or less than 1 nanometer.
- Application: Completed evaluation and recognized first revenue from the eScan 1100 multi-beam inspection system.
- High NA EUV Adoption:
- Customer feedback on High NA performance is very positive, citing benefits in imaging, overlay, and contrast leading to cost reduction opportunities.
- ASML is working closely with customers to determine the ideal integration point of High NA technology into their processes, with some customer discussions implying potential for faster deployment.
- "They are seeing major performance benefit in imaging, overlay and contrast, which also provide significant cost reduction opportunities for both logic and DRAM processes."
- Initial High NA tool orders are for R&D with customer orders already placed for EXE:5200 tools designed for high-volume manufacturing.
- Demand & Capacity:
- ASML is preparing its supply chain for potential upside in demand related to AI.
- Increased AI demand is expected to drive higher utilization of initially built capacity for advanced logic, though the initial focus is not solely on AI.
- A normal ramp pattern is expected for 2nm capacity build, extending from 2025 into 2026 and potentially 2027.
- ASML is having discussions with customers about the possibility of accelerating the ramp if demand remains strong.
- China Market:
- China's share of ASML's sales has normalized to around 27% in Q4, down from 47% in September, mainly due to digestion of previous backlogs rather than solely due to export control restrictions.
- "So, yes, export controls are a part of that, but the lion's share of the reason for the normalization of demand is what I have said earlier, which is that the eating into the backlog that was built up all the way through 2022 is now coming to an end."
- ASML's outlook for China hasn't changed significantly from previous quarters.
- Order Bookings and Backlog:
- ASML will now provide a backlog view annually rather than quarterly, a change driven by the large and lumpy nature of orders.
- "As you have seen in previous quarters and as we have highlighted multiple times, order intake can be very lumpy. And that is because the total size of the orders per customer are pretty significance, given the tool prices for High NA tools for Low NA tools, which, as you know, are pretty substantive."
- EUV order intake of €3 billion covers the midpoint of 2025 revenue expectations.
- Deep UV order book is not yet fully covered for the midpoint, though coverage is high.
- The company expects order intake in the first two quarters, particularly from logic customers.
- Memory Market:
- While logic demand is expected to increase, the memory market is anticipated to be relatively flat in 2025, with exposure being more on DRAM than NAND.
- The company expects HBM capacity to drive DRAM growth with a strong DRAM demand expected in 2025.
