Bitcoin Briefing Doc - October 17, 2024
Market Trends:
- Declining Interest in Bitcoin: Google search volume for "Bitcoin" has plummeted to yearly lows, reaching a score of just 33 out of 100 in the week of October 12th. This signifies waning mainstream interest in the leading cryptocurrency. (Source: Cointelegraph)
- Memecoin Surge: In contrast, interest in "memecoins" remains high, with a search volume score of 77. Experts predict this will surpass the previous all-time high by the end of the month, driven by new token launches on platforms like Solana and Tron. (Source: Cointelegraph)
- Bitcoin Price Surge: Despite declining search interest, Bitcoin's price touched $66,000 on October 14th, marking a 5% increase. This surge coincides with endorsements of crypto from both major US presidential candidates, signaling potential bullish momentum linked to the upcoming election. (Source: Cryptoslate)
Investment Insights:
- Mayer Multiple: Currently at 1.04, the Mayer Multiple suggests Bitcoin is undervalued compared to its historical average of 1.31. This could signal a buying opportunity for long-term investors. (Source: Bitbo)
- Realized Price: The Bitcoin Realized Price, which reflects the average price at which each coin last moved on the network, provides a measure of long-term holder sentiment. The current market price exceeding the realized price suggests a positive outlook. (Source: Bitbo)
- Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH): With the market price above the STH Realized Price, short-term holders are currently in profit. This metric can be a useful indicator of market sentiment and potential selling pressure. (Source: Bitbo)
- Institutional Adoption: Asset management firms like Samara Asset Group and Galaxy Digital are actively increasing their Bitcoin holdings. Samara aims to reach 1,000 BTC by year-end, financed by a €30 million bond, while Galaxy Digital has purchased nearly 500 BTC since October 7th. This points to growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. (Source: Cointelegraph, Arkham Intelligence)
- MicroStrategy's Vision: MicroStrategy, already holding over 252,000 BTC, outlines its ambitious plan to become a trillion-dollar "Bitcoin bank" by leveraging debt to maximize Bitcoin investments. Founder Michael Saylor predicts a 29% annual growth for Bitcoin, ultimately reaching millions per coin. (Source: Bitbo News)
Other Developments:
- Taproot Adoption: Coinbase, a major cryptocurrency exchange, announces support for Bitcoin Taproot transactions. This upgrade enhances Bitcoin's privacy, scalability, and smart contract functionality. (Source: Bitcoin Only)
- Lost Bitcoin Lawsuit: A British man who accidentally discarded a hard drive containing 8,000 Bitcoin continues his legal battle against Newport City Council, seeking $647 million in damages. This case highlights the risks associated with self-custody of Bitcoin. (Source: Cointelegraph)
Key Quotes:
- Michael Saylor on Bitcoin's Potential: "It’s the most valuable asset." (Source: Bitbo News)
- Patrick Lowry on Samara's Bitcoin Investment: "Not sure it’s possible, but it’d be a dream to stack as much as Michael Saylor." (Source: Cointelegraph)
- Kamala Harris on Crypto Regulation: "She will make sure owners of and investors in digital assets benefit from a regulatory framework.” (Source: Cryptoslate)
Overall Sentiment:
While mainstream interest in Bitcoin appears to be waning, the market shows signs of strength, fueled by institutional investments, a positive on-chain metrics, and political endorsements. The upcoming US election and potential regulatory clarity could be major drivers for Bitcoin's price action in the near future.
