Europe today finds itself at a geopolitical crossroads. From Brussels to Berlin, Paris to Warsaw, policymakers are grappling with a world order that is undergoing fundamental changes. At one level, there is a growing sense of clarity: Europe today sees a world shaped by intensifying great-power rivalry, fragile economic interdependence, and political currents that are tugging the continent in different directions. But beneath that clarity lies deep uncertainty. What role is there for Europe in this new world that is emerging?
The return of Donald Trump to the White House in January only sharpened these questions. European leaders said they were better prepared for a second Trump presidency, and more attuned to the risks. Yet a year on, concerns about American reliability linger. The transatlantic relationship still feels incredibly fragile and dialogue with America feels coercive and extractive. Nothing exemplifies this than the divergences between the EU and the US over the war in Ukraine.
Then there is China. The EU officially describes China as a partner for cooperation, an economic competitor and a systemic rival. It has developed several instruments to address concerns around economic imbalances, subsidies and human rights. But the relationship remains rocky. This was evident when the EU-China summit earlier this year ended with nothing substantive agreed.
And finally, there’s India—an emerging partner, a strategic opportunity, but also a relationship shaped by persistent friction over trade, Russia, and values. The question is whether Europe and India can find enough convergence to build something truly durable.
So how should we understand Europe in 2025? What worldview is taking shape, what anxieties lie beneath it, and where might Europe be headed?
To unpack all this, in this episode of The Great Power Show, I speak with Gesine Weber, Senior Researcher on Global Security at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich. Gesine believes that in order to deal with the challenges before it, Europe needs to re-imagine its grand strategy from a realist perspective. This not only entails arriving at a new balance in transatlantic ties but also first outlining a clear vision for the relationship with China rather than simply creating specific toolkits or instruments.
As always, I hope you enjoy the discussion. Please like, share, subscribe, and rate the episode. And if you’d like to support the show or the work I do, don’t hesitate to reach out.
Gesine’s Substack:
