In this episode of the Texas Land Guys podcast, Tom and Tim Dosch are joined by Tripp Rich from their Dallas office to dive into the current state of Austin's real estate market. They discuss the challenges Austin faces, including overbuilding in multifamily, industrial, and single-family sectors, and how the market is adapting. Tripp highlights record absorption rates for multifamily units in 2024 and optimistic projections for 2025, noting that Austin's growth trajectory mirrors Dallas's despite its smaller size.
The conversation explores submarket dynamics, with downtown Austin and core areas outperforming the suburbs, while retail development thrives. Industrial and office spaces face oversupply issues, but tech giants like Tesla and Samsung continue to drive long-term demand. Tripp also shares insights on San Antonio's affordability and growth potential, as well as the impact of infrastructure projects like I-35 expansion.
They wrap the episode with advice for developers navigating Austin’s complex landscape, stressing the importance of strategic site selection and patience. Tripp remains bullish on Central Texas, citing its global appeal and high barriers to entry as key advantages for long-term opportunity. Tune in for a deep dive into the deals, trends, and optimism shaping Texas’s hottest markets.
Key Takeaways
- Multifamily is absorbing record units, but suburban submarkets are still soft on rents and oversupplied.
- Industrial development is 18 months behind multifamily, with shallow bay, urban infill projects outperforming larger “bomber” builds.
- Retail is booming, especially in suburban areas, with record land sales and pricing per foot.
- Office remains challenging, but Class A urban infill spaces may be poised for a rebound as return-to-office trends grow.
- San Antonio is rising as an affordable single-family market, with developers rushing to meet demand.
- Water shortages, utility delays, and high impact fees are serious headwinds across Central Texas.
- Out-of-state and international investors—particularly from India and the Middle East—have poured into Austin, some now stuck with entitled but unbuildable land.
- Developers and equity should act now to secure strong sites with time, as patient capital can capture upside in 18–24 months.
In This Episode:
- [01:13] Austin real estate market challenges
- [02:55] Multifamily and industrial market insights
- [04:41] Retail and office market trends
- [09:51] Elon Musk's impact on Central Texas
- [15:45] San Antonio and I-35 corridor developments
- [19:18] Austin's growth and potential mega city
- [20:16] Builder activity in San Antonio
- [23:02] Austin's potential MLB and NFL teams
- [24:14] Industrial market in Central Texas
- [28:16] Foreign investment in North Austin
- [30:03] Challenges in Austin's real estate market
- [33:31] Advice for developers in Austin
- [40:22] Conclusion and final thoughts
Resources and Links
Podcast
Tripp Rich
Tom Dosch
Tim Dosch
