For centuries, the heart of the global economy beat in the East. From the year 1 through 1820, China and India consistently ranked as the world’s largest economies—commanding nearly half of global output. But with the Industrial Revolution and European colonial expansion, that balance unraveled. The West surged ahead, and by the mid-20th century, it dominated not only global trade and finance but the political and ideological frameworks through which global power was exercised.
Then came 1991.
With the Soviet Union’s collapse, the U.S. and Europe stood alone at the top. Some declared history itself had ended—liberal democracy had won, and no serious alternatives remained. Washington and Brussels believed the world would naturally align with their values. But this assumption bred strategic complacency. The U.S. slashed diplomatic budgets. Europe deepened energy dependence on Russia. NATO expanded toward Moscow’s borders, dismissing growing protests from the East. And public diplomacy—the careful work of listening, persuading, and engaging—atrophied.
Meanwhile, history hadn’t ended in Asia. It had only paused.
In 1978, Deng Xiaoping began unleashing China’s latent power through state-guided reforms and special economic zones. India followed in 1991, forced by crisis to abandon its protectionist model and embrace globalization. Over the next three decades, both nations transformed: hundreds of millions were lifted from poverty, foreign investment surged, and global supply chains began to tilt east. China launched the Belt and Road Initiative, exporting its model of state-led capitalism. India, driven by a vast young workforce, became a global IT hub. Together, they reclaimed a central position in the world economy—one they historically held for 1,800 years.
Europe, in contrast, finds itself increasingly constrained. Its reliance on Russian gas and American security guarantees has left it caught between superpowers. Efforts to build “strategic autonomy” have been hampered by internal divisions and fiscal limits. And the 2022 Ukraine war—sparked, in part, by long-ignored Russian warnings over NATO—only underscored how disconnected Western policy had become from geopolitical realities.
Demographics will accelerate this rebalancing. By 2050, one in four people on Earth will be African. India already has the world’s largest youth population. The West, aging and shrinking, must now contend with a world it no longer leads by default—but one it must navigate with humility, adaptability, and strategic clarity.
The West’s era of dominance was not destiny. It was a detour. And that detour is ending.
