Since 1945 the dollar has been the world’s compass: tankers price their crude in it, central banks hoard it, and households everywhere measure value against its green face. But reserve status is a promise, not a birth-right—a lesson the British pound learned when war debts dethroned sterling. That warning is echoing now. President Trump hails new 100 % tariffs, flirts with pegging Fed rates, and vows to shrink federal debt. The world hears a threat: will Washington still supply a steady, neutral stream of safe assets? Some act accordingly. China and Russia settle more trade in yuan and rubles, the EU debates ‘digital euro’ rails, and Saudi Arabia pilots oil sales via Beijing’s mBridge platform. Yet each alternative carries its own baggage—Europe lacks a unified safe bond, Beijing still cages capital behind controls—so demand for Treasuries endures on inertia and need. The likeliest future is a slow fade, not a crash: the dollar keeps the largest share but surrenders market slices to a patchwork of euros, yuan and even IMF baskets. For Americans that means a cheaper currency at the checkout line, costlier interest on the national credit card, and less leverage when sanctions fly. Reserve privilege is easy to overlook—until the bill arrives.
