From Main Street shopkeepers to bond traders in Tokyo, everyone is watching the U.S. dollar slip below the psychological 100‑point line, a three‑year low that hints at deeper stress. After years of twin deficits funded by foreign savings, confidence is fraying. Central banks from Beijing to Brasília are quietly topping up gold, testing CBDC rails, and settling oil in local currencies—small cracks that add up to a multipolar monetary mosaic. At home, tariffs meant to punish rivals are boomeranging: import prices pass straight through to consumers, small businesses face 145 percent duties on goods they can’t source locally, and tourists are re‑ranking the United States behind cheaper, friendlier destinations. The Treasury market still clears, yet Japan and China are trimming holdings, leaving balance‑sheet‑constrained dealers to absorb ever‑larger auctions. Leveraged‑ETF flows and record margin debt could turn a routine earnings miss into a liquidity air pocket. Washington can roll back tariff walls and steady the fiscal keel, or double down and risk a capital exodus that forces a modern‑day Volcker shock. The world’s reserve currency is a privilege, not a birthright—how that lesson lands will shape the next decade.
