In 2008, as Wall Street buckled, Beijing began stitching its own safety net. It shaved its Treasury hoard, stuffed vaults with gold, and laid CIPS rails beneath the dollar-ruled streets. Trump’s 2018 tariffs jolted the plan forward: swap lines spread across Africa, letting Nairobi dealers quote solar panels in yuan and clear through PAPSS—no New York needed. Central banks once wed to green paper added euros, Aussie notes, and bullion, bracing for the day sanctions might target them.
By 2024 the mBridge CBDC corridor made settlement near-instant; a tap in Abu Dhabi paid a factory in Shenzhen in seconds, outside SWIFT’s gaze. Yet Beijing kept US \$700 billion of Treasuries—short-dated, liquid, and still a lever over Washington. Now a mooted 145 percent tariff risks replaying 2020-style supply shocks, giving every exporter and finance minister fresh motive to hedge. Gold at record highs and quiet euro buying write the score of this transition.
The dollar still anchors more than half of reserves, but its grip loosens millimetre by millimetre—until a single policy jolt could turn millimetres into metres. The real question is not if an alternative will exist, but who will be quickest to recognise when it quietly becomes the easier choice.
