From the Persian Gulf to the Sahel, the American flag still flies over roughly 750 overseas bases, but the fiscal winds at home are shifting. After spending about eight trillion dollars on post-9/11 wars that killed nearly five million people once indirect effects are counted, Washington faces a debt bill whose interest could soon eclipse the Pentagon budget. Power is rearranging elsewhere: Africa will house a quarter of humanity by 2050, Muslims may outnumber Christians by 2060, and the BRICS+ bloc already matches the G-7 in purchasing-power GDP. Sahel juntas eject French troops and welcome Russian or Turkish advisers; Gulf states settle oil in yuan; Beijing builds in Djibouti while Lagos eyes BRICS membership. Inside the United States a coming minority-majority electorate asks why militarized spending claims two-thirds of discretionary funds when bridges rust and hospitals close. Analysts sketch two futures: a soft landing with phased base closures and real partnerships, or a hard landing where abrupt retreat collides with emboldened rivals. Either way, the century will be shaped less by the nation that once bestrode the world than by the billions who remember how that footprint felt under their feet.
