Välfyllda butikshyllor, ekonomiskt välstånd och låg arbetslöshet riskerar att bli ett minne blott ifall hotet om handelskrig blir verklighet.
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”Handelskrig är bra och enkla att vinna”, skrev USA:s president Donald Trump när han införde importtullar i mars 2018. Sju år senare är Trump långt ifrån den enda ledaren i världen som tagit till tullar och andra handelshinder för att skydda inhemsk industri. Och kanske står vi inför en världsomfattande handelskonflikt.
Men varför ökar protektionismen på olika håll i världen? Vad innebär ett handelskrig egentligen, och hur kan handelskonflikter öka risken för militära krig?
Producent och programledare: Anna Lillkung och Wendela Antepohl
Medverkande
Johan Norberg – Författare, föreläsare och senior fellow vid Cato Institute
Bill Reinsch – Senior rådgivare, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Ingrid Serup – Expert inom handelspolitik, Svenskt Näringsliv
Fredrik Sjöholm – Professor i nationalekonomi och vd på Institutet för Näringslivsforskning
Growing Threats to Global Trade. Pinelopi K. Goldberg and Tristan Reed,
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA), 2023
Re-examining the connection between peace, conflict and trade. (White Paper). Patrick Hiller. War Prevention Initiative, 2015.
”We need them” - Trump vows to take control of Greenland and Panama Canal - The Guardian, 2025.
When Trade Leads to War. Dale C. Copeland. Foreign Affairs, 2022.
The Loss of Indispensable Consolations: The Rise of Protectionism and Its Role in Global Conflicts. Rocio Gatdula. Georgetown Security Studies Review, 2024.
From Smoot-Hawley to ‘America first’ and ‘strategic sovereignty’. Fredrik Erixon, Joseph Francois, and Koen Berden. The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), 2020.
Economic Interdependence and War. Dale C. Copeland. International Security, 1996.
U.S.-China Relations for the 2030s: Toward a Realistic Scenario for Coexistence. Carnegie Endowment for Peace, 2024.
Perils of Globalization When Factories Close and Towns Struggle. The New York Times. 2015.
Europe, And the World, Should Use Green Subsidies Cooperatively. International Monetary Fund. 2023.
Global GDP over the long run. Our World in Data. Data hämtad i januari 2025.
Trump is proposing a 10 % tariff. Economists say that amounts to a $1700 tax on Americans. CBS News. 2024.
Economic Backfire: The Costly Impact of Trump's proposed Tariffs.
Lovi Nordgren, Nils Norell, Petter Stålenheim. Kommerskollegium. 2024.
Vilka länder är Sveriges viktigaste handelspartners? Kommerskollegium. 2024.
Making Tariffs Great Again: Does President Trump Have Legal Authority to Implement New Tariffs on U.S. Trading Partners and China? William Reinsch. CSIS. 2024.
The effects of tariff hikes in a world of global value chains. European Central Bank. 2019.
The effects of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on EU competitiveness. Svenskt Näringsliv. 2023.
China Dominates Global Manufacturing. CSIS. 2025.
Who Benefits from Trade Wars? Wolfgang Lechthaler, Mariya Mileva. Trade Policy. 2018.
Fragile international relations, trade, and policy. Anna Karhu. Baltic Rim Economies. 2022.
Riskgäldsdirektören: ”Risk för ett närliggande handelskrig”. Klara Matsdotter. Placera. 2024.
Ekonomiska konsekvenser av ökad protektionism. Riksbanken. 2017.
Sverige kan straffas av jättarnas handelskrig. SVT. 2023.
Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States. NBER Working Paper Series. 2024.
Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump’s Trade Wars. The Economic Journal. 2021.
How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market. Carnegie Endowment for Peace. 2021.
Tariffs are a misunderstood tool. Michael Pettis. The Financial Times.
China’s problem is excess savings, not too much capacity. Michael Pettis. Financial Times. 2024.
Fighting Global Protection: Why the Economist is Mistaken. Carnegie Endowment for Peace. 2023.
A Trump trade war 2.0 will be worse than the first for Europe. Politico. 2024.
The world faces its worst trade wars since the 1930s. The Economist. 2024.
Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries. J Policy Model. 2020.
The EU Response to US Trade Tariffs. Intereconomics - Review of European Economic Policy. 2018.
Full-blown trade wars weaken EU GDP by 2.5 percent. Dansk Industri. 2024.
Brexit deal impact in UK is worsening, warn economists. BBC News. 2024.
New report reveals UK economy is almost £140billion smaller because of Brexit. Cambridge Econometrics (Commissioned by City Hall). 2024.
The economic implications of rising protectionism: a euro area and global perspective. European Central Bank. 2019
Imports, Exports, and Earnings Inequality: Measures of Exposure and Estimates of Incidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2022.
Changing views on trade’s impact on inequality in wealthy countries. Peter Levell, David Dorn. Center for Economic Policy Research. 2022.
A primer on trade and inequality. Dani Rodrik. The IFS Deaton Review. 2021.
International Trade and Inequality. Asian Development Bank Institute. 2017.
The economic impacts of Trump’s tariff proposals on Europe. Aurélien Saussay. Policy Insight. 2024.
The Trump trade wars are coming back. Here’s what to expect this time. Josh Lipsky. Atlantic Council. 2024.
In the US-China trade war, how did some “bystander” countries come out ahead? Yale EGC Website. 2024.
Ekonomipristagaren Simon Johnson om Trumps utlovade tullar: ”I värsta fall får vi ett handelskrig”. SVT. 2024.
Så räddade frihandeln världen – två gånger. Tidningen Näringslivet. 2022.
Commentary: Did Trump’s tariffs benefit American workers and national security? Geoffrey Gertz. The Brookings Institution. 2020.
The Risk of Protectionism: What can be lost? Marek Dabrowski. J Risk Financial Manag. 2004.
The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2019.
2024 Post-Election Analysis: Trade and Tariffs. Mintz. 2024.
Why Europe is Losing the Tech Race. Foreign Policy. 2024.
The Draghi Report: A Strategy to Reform the European Economic Model. Federico Steinberg, Max Bergmann. CSIS.org. 2024.
China’s Trade Surplus – Implications for the World and for Europe. Jurgen Matthes. Intereconomics - Review of European Economic Policy. 2024.
Trade wars and real wars. Jonathan Hillman. CSIS.org. 2018.
From “Made in China” to “Created in China”: Intellectual Property Rights in the People’s Republic of China. Gerald J. Krieger. National Defense University Press. 2024.
From solar to EVs: How China is overproducing green tech. Nik Martin. Deutsche Welle. 2024.
The EU’s comparative advantage in the “clean-energy arms race”. The Annals of Regional Science. 2025.
Trading Away from Conflict: Using Trade to Increase Resilience in Fragile States. World Bank Group.
Trade, War and Reconstruction. CEPR. 2023.
Trade and peace: The WTO case. China Economic Review. 2024.
Does Trade Contribute to Peace? Jong-Wha Lee and Ju Hyun Pyun. Cato Institute. 2020.
Protectionism Started the Geopolitical Fire. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg. Project Syndicate. 2023.
A less global village? World trade in the age of geopolitical fragmentation. Coface for Trade. Eva Barre, Marcos Carias. 2024.
How Bad Are Trade Wars? Evidence from Tariffs. Czech National Bank. 2021.
The Economic Consequences of Globalisation in the United States. Peter A. Petri, Meenal Banka. ERIA Discussion Paper Series. 2020.
Det kapitalistiska manifestet. Johan Norberg. 2021.
The Role of Trade in ending Poverty. WTO. 2015.
Handelns betydelse för vårt välstånd. Svenskt Näringsliv.
Botched policy responses to globalization have decimated manufacturing employment with often overlooked costs for Black, Brown, and other workers of color. Economic Policy Institute. 2022.
The Globalization And Offshoring Of U.S. Jobs Have Hit Americans Hard. Jack Kelly. Forbes. 2024.
Freyr Battery Receives Shareholder Approval For Redomicile to USA. High North News. 2023.
Vår relativa fattigdom är alltmer uppenbar. Katrine Kielos. Svenska Dagbladet. 2024.
Global growth forecast to flatline as tariffs add to strains. Jonathan Josephs. BBC. 2025.
How a trade war would impact global growth. World Economic Forum. 2019.
Quantifying the losses from a global trade war. Banque de France. 2018.
Costly Conflict: Here’s How China’s Military Options for Taiwan Backfire. United States Institute for Peace. 2024.
Majority of Americans take a dim view of increased trade with other countries. Pew Research Center. 2024.
EFN Ekonomikanalen (Youtube): ”Signal mot att man vill ha ett handelskrig med Kina”
Konflikt i P1: Så rustar Europa för ett nytt handelskrig mot Trump
Andra ljudklipp som hörs i avsnittet kommer från The Washington Post, Euronews, ABC News, The National Archives Southeast Region, NPR.com, Youtube-kontot KGW News.
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