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To investors,
The finance industry runs on economic data. Investors around the world consume various data points, draw conclusions from the data, and make capital allocation decisions based on that data.
But what if the data being consumed by investors is inaccurate? What if the data is politically biased?
It would essentially guarantee misguided investment decisions are being made.
Bad inputs lead to bad outputs. You can’t make good decisions if you are basing those decisions on inaccurate or biased data.
This brings us to a bombshell discovery of provably false and politically biased data by Fundstrat and Tom Lee. In a recent report to clients, Fundstrat pointed out how the University of Michigan consumer survey has become completely unreliable due to a sharp rise in political bias.
Before I cover that bias and inaccuracy, let me explain the University of Michigan survey. The survey is described as “a monthly survey that measures American consumers’ attitudes toward the economy, personal finances, and their readiness to spend. Considered a leading economic indicator, the survey, which has been conducted since 1946, uses a minimum of 500 phone interviews and provides insights into consumer optimism or pessimism. The results are used to predict economic trends, including consumer spending and the overall health of the economy.”
Now lets go back to the political bias and inaccuracies. We have known for awhile there are differences in political affiliations when it comes to inflation expectations. Fundstrat shows that here:
Democrats expect inflation to be 5.3% a year from now, while Republicans believe it will be 1.5%. Of course, the truth is likely somewhere in-between. But this political difference is not a problem because it is clear, transparent, and easily understood. You can summarize the difference as politics breaking the economic brains of those being surveyed.
Is it dumb? Of course. Would I accuse the University of Michigan of tipping the scales in any way? No, not at all.
But Fundstrat takes their analysis a step further. They show that the University of Michigan survey has been corrupted over the last two years. They used to survey Republicans and Democrats on a 50/50 basis for years, but there was an explicit change in early 2024.
The University of Michigan survey has shifted left on the political aisle. Rather than 50/50 survey pool, the surveyed group is now 65% Democrats and the trend is only getting worse. You can see in the chart how absurd the change has been.
So what is the big deal?
If I am being nice, the University of Michigan has suddenly screwed up their data collection methodologies. Frankly, I find that hard to believe given how well they stayed unbiased for years. If I put on my conspiratorial hat, we need to ask why University of Michigan is manipulating the data and putting their fingers on the scale?
I will leave it to each of you to decide whether you think the data issues are intentional or not.
And to provide the most robust analysis possible, here is a 4-minute clip of Tom Lee talking with me about this ridiculous issue:
The economic data is corrupted. It is politicaly biased. If you are counting on that data to make investment decisions, it is going to be very hard to make good investment decisions moving forward.
I am looking at ways to address this issue for myself and our investing activities. As I find solutions, I will share them with all of you.
Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Gold Is Winning But Bitcoin Will Win Bigger
Anthony and John Pompliano discuss everything happening across the markets — bitcoin, gold, stocks, the Fed, and where things could be headed next.
Are we going up or down? Should investors be worried or getting excited? And why retail investors might actually have an edge over institutions right now.
Enjoy!
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