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To investors,
Mark Spitznagel is one of my favorite investors in the world. He is notorious for running an investment strategy that loses money for long periods of time, while hoping a big market crash is right around the corner. When the market crash materializes, Spitznagel and his firm make an insane amount of money.
Spitznagel’s Universa Investments runs a tail-risk hedge fund with $20 billion in assets under management. To put this strategy in perspective, when most of Wall Street was freaking out back in April due to the tariff policies, Universa was busy booking a 100% gain that month.
100% in a single month. Not bad, right?
Spitznagel is one of my favorite investors because his world view balances daily pessimism with a data-driven approach to long-term patience. Not many people can intentionally lose money every day for long periods of time. Mark has written two great books on this perspective — The DAO of Capital and Safe Haven. I highly suggest reading both of them.
But you may be surprised to learn Mark Spitznagel, the man betting on market crashes, is actually bullish on stocks right now.
In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, Spitznagel said he expects stocks to surge much higher before there is any material market correction.
“The alarming part of Spitznagel’s current outlook is that he sees conditions akin to 1929, the year of the Wall Street crash. The silver lining for those hoping the bull-market music will keep playing a while longer: He thinks this is more like the early part of 1929 when stocks added significantly to their Roaring ’20s gains.”
So the perma bear on Wall Street is actually bullish right now. Maybe that is a good sign for investors that are long, but potentially it is a sign of the market top too. I will let you decide how to interpret that development.
Now Spitznagel is not alone in his recent optimism. Wisdom Tree’s Jeff Weniger writes:
“The S&P 500 is up 15% this year, and the primary reason that occurred is because the big, scary Tariff War was overhyped.
If you look at this like a bar tab receipt, your table ordered lobster, filet mignon, expensive wine, martinis, oysters, and more. But someone added a bowl of chicken noodle soup (the tariffs) and we were told that the soup was reason enough to panic out of stocks, send volatility to Lehman levels, send the S&P 500 reeling by the same order of magnitude as the Covid crash, and all the rest of the drama. What an interesting year.”
Smart money is positioning themselves for stocks to go up too. Mike Zaccardi points out “US margin debt is now at an all-time high. Which is bullish - you want to see confirmation between stock prices and margin debt (smart money indicator).”
And retail investors don’t want to be left out of this party. They had the highest weekly inflow into the market for all of 2025 last week.
Of course, the Federal Reserve wants to throw gas on the fire too. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello shows “The bond market is pricing in 2 more 25 bps rate cuts by year-end and 3 more 25 bps cuts in 2026. That would bring the Fed Funds Rate below 3%. After a brief hiatus, easy money is back.”
Easy money is back. Everyone is bullish. Even the man constantly betting on a market crash. Maybe you can be the contrarian that times the top of the market, but my guess is things in motion will stay in motion. The market is going higher. The pessimists will be left crying. And those who understand how to buy great assets and chill will be laughing all the way to the bank.
Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Mike Novogratz and Kyle Samani On The New Company They Raised $1.6 Billion For
Mike Novogratz is the Founder & CEO of Galaxy. Kyle Samani is the Chairman of Forward Industries and the Co-Founder & Managing Partner at Multicoin Capital.
In this conversation we talk about the $1.65 billion fundraise they recently did, how big these treasury companies can get, why they love Solana, tokenization, plans for the company, risks, and how they are going to generate shareholder returns.
Enjoy!
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