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Welcome to Breaking Brad. The New England Patriots suffered a 20-7 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 to open the season, and there’s a lot to consider when thinking about what this 2022-23 Patriots will look like and how they’ll ultimately finish. With that in mind, here are five takeaways from their Week 1 performance.
No. 1: Mental Mistakes are Becoming Normalbb
Yes, ever since the departure of Tom Brady, the errors that used to be uncharacteristic of Bill Belichick’s squad, committing turnovers, particularly fumbles, missed assignments, penalties - jumping offsides in crucial moments; these have all become fairly normal.
Bill Belichick, who used to rule with an iron fist when Brady was on the team, has become much softer on his players. You heard him after the game on Sunday, basically saying, if it weren’t for those mistakes, we could have had a chance at winning the game. Contrast that to the Tom Brady era, when the typical response was simply, “we need to play better, we need to execute better, we need to coach better.” Now, it’s a lot of fluff that we’re not used to seeing from Bill over the last two decades.
Perhaps he’s still trying to get his players to buy-in to their new system, new coaches, etc. But does Bill really think so low of this team, he has to pretend they’re playing better than they really are just to get their confidence up? If that’s the case, it’s cause for concern.
That being said, I’m really not that discouraged after this loss. I was expecting the Patriots to lose considering they always seem to lose down in Miami, even during the Brady era. Which brings me to point . . .
No. 2: The Mistakes Are Fixable
The first turnover came on a fairly egregious no-call on a hold against DeVante Parker that was deflected and intercepted. The Pats were driving the ball fairly easily up until that point, and were likely to end up in the end zone or settling for a field goal. So, I’m not going to worry about that play too much.
The big mistake that really hurt them, came on a strip sack against Mac Jones resulting in a touchdown, a Sack 6, that wasn’t really the quarterback’s fault. Either Trent Brown, the left tackle, should have picked up the safety blitz, or it was on Hunter Henry to either stop him or provide a quicker check down. Not sure exactly what happened there, but as expected from a tumultuous Training Camp, the offensive line communication broke down and cost them those seven points. Not a great look, but certainly as this offensive line spends more time together in this new zone run-type system, one would expect those mistakes not to occur as often.
Then there was the 4th & 7 in the final seconds of the first half. Kyle Dugger took a bad angle on Jaylen Waddle, who easily broke through the defense and scored a heartbreaking touchdown, giving the Dolphins a 17-0 lead heading into halftime. I can tell you, Dugger, who otherwise had a terrific game, will not make that mistake again. That’s a correction that can be made.
You take out those two plays where the Pats shot themselves in the foot, they would have been in the game and potentially could have won. Again, don’t love Belichick making that point, but it is the truth. In the NFL, the margin for error is small. If they avoided those mistakes, the Patriots might have actually looked okay.
No. 3: Kendrick Bourne is in the Dog House
Kendrick Bourne, who was arguably the Patriots first or second-best receiver last year, only played a couple of snaps on Sunday, which included an explosive, down-the-sideline gain, their biggest of the day.
Bourne reportedly did not buy into the adjustments Bill Belichick was making during Training Camp, he got into multiple fights in joint practices, and as a result, he’s being punished for it. You hope that will change soon, because he adds an element to that offense that can be a real gamechanger.
Bourne was frustrated on the sideline after getting pulled following his great catch. The very next play, Nelson Agholor made a boneheaded fumble, which the Dolphins recovered, ruining any chances of a late comeback.
No. 4: The Play Calling Wasn’t the Issue
With all the talk about the Patriots moving former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to offensive play-calling duties, there really didn’t seem to be any issues there.
Even without Josh McDaniels, the Pats stuck with a lot of the old, power run-heavy offense, while mixing in some of the new elements. I could easily have seen Josh McDaniels calling the same game and getting a similar result.
That wasn’t the issue, it was the execution.
And finally, No. 5: The Running Game Played Well
The Patriots basically had to abandon the run in the second half because they were playing catch-up, but in the first half, the running backs ran the ball nine times for a total of 41 yards. While those numbers don’t exactly jump off the page, when you think back to where they were during Training Camp, with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson getting stuffed over and over again, things actually looked fairly normal.
There is a lot to build on there.
Overall, there is no reason to panic just yet about this Patriots team. The mistakes that were made on Sunday, were enormous mistakes that cost them the game, but they were also fixable mistakes. My only concern: is the culture changing in Foxboro? Maybe Bill will get somewhere by going soft on his players in the final years of his coaching career. But at some point, he has to say, this isn’t working, and become a hardass again.
Next week’s game in Pittsburgh should be a real test. It’s a winnable game, but in a tough environment. If the Pats can minimize some of these mistakes, they should be able to walk away with a victory and get back on track. That’s a big if right now.
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