Listen in the substack podcast app
Or on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Welcome back.
Im excited to be back making more consistent content for the subs. Todays podcast was a lot of fun to do.
We had a familiar face back on the pod - Melissa Caouette from MC Consulting and Pocket Lobbyist - subscribe here
We talked deeply about the state of play in Canadian Politics and how the tariff war is impacting our economy, Canadians sentiment towards the Prime Minister and what we should expect over the coming 12-18 months.
Market Updatešš
Ā· Macro: Huge changes to interest rate policy, Jobs data and foreign policy strategy is afoot
Ā· Market: GPT 5 dropsā¦ The impacts that should trickle down as a result.
Ā· Media: A Huge Deal between the NFL and Disney changes the landscape of sports media
GPT5 release:
OpenAIās GPT-5 & Open Source OSS: OpenAI had a very big product week, with both its long anticipated GPT-5 and GPT-OSS, āOpen-Weightā AI models. The key takeaways on GPT-5 are that it is simplified and unified such that their 700+ million weekly users donāt have to pre-pick which AI model to click on, from a drop down menu. Now GPT-5 is designed to ārouteā the queries to the right underlying OpenAI models. Also GPT-5 is broadly available even in free tiers. Although higher usage means higher priced tiers. Also businesses and developers can of course pick specific OpenAI models still via the APIs. On the OpenAI open weight āOSSā models, the offerings should sate businesses and developers who want to use open source to craft their own AIs, but stay within the broader OpenAI ecosystem. Also this helps OpenAI publicly respond to the global popularity of Chinese open source models. And of course address Metaās Llama LLMs. Both sets of products now will of course be rigorously reviewed. discussed, and assessed by the global market. So stay tuned for that. More here.
Big Tech Navigates AI:
Apple & Nvidia Manage Tariffs: Both Apple for now, and Nvidia a few weeks ago, seem to have mollified and placated the administration in Washington. Most importantly on their ongoing tech tariffs, especially on chips and devices. Both CEOs Tim Cook and Jensen Huang have done what they had to do to personally manage their companies through these geopolitical and ājust politicalā waters. These depths in tech are now more politically treacherous than in any prior tech waves. And itās not clear that getting exemptions for their particular companies is going to really help long-term. Especially given the enormous, and complex ecosystems their businesses have built and rely on. To do the tech magic at global scale that theyāve achieved for investors to date. More here and here
Mind Candy:
A Great Newsletter Post from Mel at Pocket Lobbyist:
āI spend a lot of time thinking and writing about small-c conservatism and how it applies in modern contexts. A recurring theme that surfaces when I juxtapose philosophical conservatism and philosophical liberalism is the concept of common sense and how it is developed. (Note: these are different than political interpretations).
In the conservative philosophical tradition, 'common sense' is a kind of accumulated wisdom of tradition, which is inherited rather than invented; a kind of practical knowledge grounded in habit and custom. Unlike liberals, who may believe common sense has been historically constructed as a result of bias, privilege, or outdated norms (rather than as a result of experience), conservatives may adopt a practical approach and may rely less on "procedures" or "rules" and focus more on intentionality and practicality.
The rick bell story below about my friend Nuvyn Peters and her family swing encapsulates the damaging impact of governments over-regulating, over-prescribing, and over-involving themselves in areas where application of a rule appears to have lost touch with the spirit of why it was created in the first place. To be grounded in the tradition of philosophical conservatism is to observe how these overreaches can, over time, damage the social fabric of our communities and societies with negative consequences (i.e., bylaw officers are unreasonable; therefore, all bylaws are unreasonable, which is surely not the case).
I have no doubt that many people at the City of Calgary agree that this is an absurd situation and likely agree that the swing should have been left alone.
However, the issue is that we no longer empower people, whether within governments (or airlines and banks as other examples), to develop and apply common sense in executing their duties because we rely so heavily on rules and so-called "expertise," however this may be designated in a particular context.
We are discouraging enforcement officers (be it bylaw, customer service, or otherwise) from thinking critically about their engagement with other human beings by being excessively prescriptive in the name of efficiency or consistency, but to what end?
Even Thomas Paine (a liberal) understood this: "Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil...in its worst state, an intolerable one."
Albertans will vote in municipal elections on October 20, 2025. If you find yourself chatting with candidates, ask them what they think of common sense and how they would seek to ensure bylaws buildārather than deteriorateāsocial cohesion and community. Local government is the closest to us, and it matters a whole lot.ā
Podcast & YouTube Recommendationsš
* What can GPT5 do?
* Stephen Kotkin ā How Stalin Became the Most Powerful Dictator in History
* Zeihan on Trumps Ukraine Policy Change
Best Links of The Weekš®
* The story behind Ozempicās parent company, Novo Nordisk. Born from a desperate quest to save a single life, this Danish pharmaceutical titan would go on to transform diabetes treatment, revolutionize drug delivery, and most recently, ignite a global obsession with weight-loss medications. This is the remarkable story of how a small nation of just six million produced one of the world's most influential biotech empires. Source: Quartr
* "The U.S. government slapped a 39% tariff on imports from Switzerland, including watches, after a diplomatic trip to Washington D.C. by the Swiss president and top government officials failed to win a last minute reprieve from the Trump administration. The new tariff rate of 39% came into effect at midnight on Thursday in the U.S. and at 6 am in Switzerland. The surge in costs for importers in the biggest single market for Swiss watches will challenge an industry that is already struggling with a post-pandemic-era downturn in global demand and a rising Swiss franc that has gained 12% against a weaker U.S. dollar this year. Meanwhile, input costs to produce luxury watches have continued to rise, with the price of gold hitting record highs." Source: Hodinkee
* "Nvidia and AMD have agreed to give the US government 15 per cent of the revenues from chip sales in China, as part of an unusual arrangement with the Trump administration to obtain export licences for the semiconductors. The two chipmakers agreed to the financial arrangement as a condition for obtaining export licences for the Chinese market that were granted last week." Source: FT
"Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan will visit the White House after President Trump called for his removal due to ties with Chinese businesses. Tan aims to reassure Trump of his commitment to the U.S. and highlight Intelās manufacturing as a national security priority. Trumpās call followed scrutiny of Tanās business dealings, including sales to a Chinese military university by a software company he formerly led and his venture-capital firmās investments." Source: WSJ
"The US expects to largely complete negotiations with countries that have yet to secure a trade deal by the end of October, Nikkei Asia reported, citing an interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The comments, made to Nikkei on Thursday, come after President Donald Trumpās sweeping new tariffs took effect. Some key trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and Switzerland, are still seeking to secure more favorable terms with the US." Source: Bloomberg
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a āpodcastā) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
