For a change—a big change—Donald Trump has said something that has me standing and applauding:
I pray to God he means it. The Iranian people have yearned to hear those words for so very long.
All hell is breaking loose in Iran as a result—so he’d better damned well mean it.
Earlier today, Amit Segal wrote:
… regimes fall because of guns and the people who hold them. In Iran, there’s more than one armed force—alongside the Revolutionary Guard stands the Iranian army. In Jerusalem, talk of a possible top-down coup has been growing. And if guns can’t be used on the protesters, perhaps someone else with guns could use them on someone other than the protesters.
It’s impossible not to contrast this with the last American reaction to an Iranian protest movement—Barack Obama’s response during the Green Movement in 2009. Obama said he was “deeply troubled” by the violence but wanted to “avoid the United States being the issue inside Iran.”
The regime understood his concern as a green light to crush the uprising.
I don’t think Trump is as “deeply troubled” as Obama, but his statement is certainly more helpful.
Still, the key question remains: Is Trump serious?
I don’t know. But the last people who can afford to underestimate him are the Iranian leadership. The last time they didn’t take the president’s threat seriously, they ended up with smoking craters where their nuclear sites used to be.
The second question may be even more consequential: Do the Iranian people believe him? Because if they do—if tonight a critical number take to the streets to test Trump’s commitment—then the guarantee of support may not even matter.
I have no doubt they believe him. After Soleimani’s fortunate demise and the strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran is probably the only place in the world where people are persuaded Trump’s word is his bond.
Voilà:
The attached podcast is an edited version of a discussion the ME201 group had with Shay Khateria few weeks ago. There are multiple people talking, so in places it’s hard to follow, but I think if you use the transcript it should be reasonably easy to figure out what’s going on.
Here’s the article in The New York Times and the videos to which I refer at the beginning of the podcast:
* Outdoor concerts? Uncovered hair? Shimmying in public? Is this Iran?Young people across Iran have been leading a dramatic change in social mores in recent months. “We have a fearless young generation that is breaking taboos.”
This isn’t a good sign:
