Warmest greetings and a happy New Year to all our readers in 2024! In a year filled with remarkable growth and shifting trends, the crypto market of 2023 witnessed phenomenal surges and intriguing dynamics. Bitcoin dominated the scene, propelling a significant market cap increase, yet quarterly and monthly insights unveiled smaller crypto assets outperforming, signaling risk-on sentiments amid evolving market forces. Bitcoin and Ether's price and ROI trends, hinted at potential trajectories, influenced by shifting momentum and market indicators. Join us as we delve into the nuanced market behaviors and evolving trends shaping the crypto landscape this year.
Crypto cap
In 2023, the crypto market experienced an exceptional surge, witnessing a staggering $849 billion increase, marking an impressive 112.3% growth. Notably, the bulk of this growth was fueled by Bitcoin, showcasing a remarkable 160.4% surge. Consequently, Bitcoin's dominance surged significantly by 22.6% from 42.1% to 51.6%. This shift, where larger market cap cryptos outperform smaller ones, often signifies a risk-off move in the market.
Zooming into the quarterly performance during Q4 of 2023, the crypto market saw a substantial $348 billion increase, indicating a robust 27.7% growth. Surprisingly, this surge was primarily attributed to 'Other crypto,' showcasing a dominant 56.6% increase. Consequently, Bitcoin's market cap dominance experienced a decline of 4.2% to 51.6%, while 'Other crypto' witnessed a significant rise in dominance from 10.8% to 13.3% by 22.7%. Such a scenario, where smaller market cap cryptos outshine larger ones, often signals a risk-on sentiment, especially amid declining stablecoin dominance.
Furthermore, December 2023 revealed a $214 billion surge in the crypto market, denoting a 15.4% growth. Similarly, the surge was driven mainly by 'Other crypto,' marking a notable 32.3% increase. Consequently, Bitcoin's market cap dominance experienced a dip of 2.8% to 51.6%, while 'Other crypto' witnessed a substantial rise in dominance from 11.6% to 13.3% by 14.7%. Once again, this trend of smaller market cap cryptos outpacing larger ones often signifies a risk-on move, particularly when stablecoin dominance diminishes.
In conclusion, the yearly, quarterly, and monthly trends in 2023 showcased varying dynamics. While the yearly performance highlighted a dominance shift towards larger market cap cryptos, quarterly and monthly movements emphasized the trend of smaller market cap cryptos outshining larger ones, reflecting alternating risk-on and risk-off sentiments in the market. These fluctuations underscore the nuanced nature of market behavior, influenced by the performance of different crypto categories and the evolving landscape of stablecoin dominance.
Bitcoin
Price trend
Since November 9th, 2022, Bitcoin has steadily followed an upward price trajectory. It's crucial to acknowledge that such trends aren't perpetual. As of January 31, 2024, there's a 50% likelihood that Bitcoin's price could hover either above or below $41.2k. Moreover, there's a 98% probability that the price will fall within the range of $33.4k to $49.0k by the same date. However, alterations in BTC's momentum could potentially push the price beyond these projected figures, leading to either surpassing or falling short of these estimated values.
Annual return on investment trend
The Bitcoin annual Return on Investment (ROI) has mirrored the price's upward trajectory since November 9th, 2022. However, just as with price trends, these annual ROI trends aren't indefinite. By January 31, 2024, there's a 50% chance that the annual ROI might rest above or below 159.6% (equivalent to $60.1k). Additionally, there's a 98% probability that the annual ROI will fall within the range of 117.3% ($50.3k) to 201.8% ($69.8k) by the same date.
However, the fluctuations in Bitcoin's momentum could potentially surpass or fall below these projected figures, much like the current scenario. Considering both the annual ROI and price trends, it's likely that at least one of these trends might deviate from the anticipated 98% probability outcome, indicating the possibility of a divergence between these two trend indicators.
Monthly chart
Bitcoin's recent monthly candlestick closed above the upper line of the Bollinger Bands, signaling a positive momentum for its price. The monthly volume has surged, surpassing both the previous month and the levels observed in September 2023, which adds to the positive outlook, especially when paired with an ascending price trajectory. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on the rise, indicating increased buying strength, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues its upward trend, underscoring sustained positive momentum in the market.
Weekly chart
Bitcoin's recent three weekly candlesticks dipped below the upper line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a shift in momentum. Over the past four weeks, the price action has formed a pendant pattern, suggesting a phase of consolidation. This consolidation might be attributed to traders seeking balance amid the holiday season, contributing to the market's stabilized movement.
While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been decreasing, it remains within the overbought area. This situation might persist if the ongoing uptrend continues, potentially allowing for a sustained period of stability. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows signs of losing momentum, evident in the convergence of the MACD and signal lines as they descend and draw closer together. This indicates a potential slowing down of the recent bullish momentum.
Ethereum
Price trend
Since November 9th, 2022, Ether has been following an upward trajectory in its price. However, it's essential to note that such price trends aren't perpetual. By January 31, 2024, if this trend persists, there's a 50% likelihood that Ether's price could either exceed or fall below $2,177. Moreover, there's a 98% probability that the price will fluctuate within the range of $1,727 to $2,627 by the same date. Yet, alterations in ETH's momentum could potentially push the price beyond these projected figures.
Annual return on investment trend
The Ether annual Return on Investment (ROI) has been on an upward trajectory since November 9th, 2022. However, akin to price trends, these annual ROI trends aren't perpetual. By January 31, 2024, if this trend persists, there's a 50% chance that Ether's annual ROI could either surpass or fall below 102.0% (equivalent to $3,205). Additionally, there's a 98% probability that the annual ROI will fluctuate within the range of 48.7% ($2,360) to 155.3% ($4,050) by the same date.
Nevertheless, alterations in ETH's momentum could potentially push the annual ROI beyond these projected figures, similar to the ongoing scenario. As observed in Bitcoin trends, it's likely, but not necessary, that at least one of these two trend indicators might diverge from the anticipated 98% probability outcomes, signaling a potential deviation from the expected trend behavior.
Monthly chart
The monthly candlestick for Ether recently closed, albeit below the upper line of the Bollinger Bands, signaling a cautiously positive outlook for its price. Over the past four months, Ether has exhibited a consistent uptrend with increasing volume, adding to the positive sentiment surrounding its performance. Moreover, both the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the momentum of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are on the rise.
However, there's a notable observation regarding the Moving Averages (MA) - the MA50 is approaching the MA20, hinting at the possibility of a potential 'death cross.' Whether this cross occurs or is avoided remains uncertain at this juncture, creating a pivotal moment that may influence Ether's price trajectory in the near future. This convergence of moving averages suggests a critical point in the market, where the direction could pivot depending on the interplay of these indicators.
Weekly chart
The previous week's closure for the weekly candlestick positioned itself beneath the upper line of the Bollinger Bands, showcasing a substantial wick that tested this upper boundary. Notably, the chart lacks a definitive volume trend, making it challenging to ascertain a clear direction based on this parameter alone. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD-cross are currently signaling a loss in momentum, suggesting a potential slowdown in Ether's recent trajectory.
Meanwhile, a significant observation lies in the Moving Averages (MA) - the MA20 is approaching proximity with the MA50, hinting at the possibility of a potential 'golden cross.' If this alignment occurs, it could potentially signal a bullish market trend. However, achieving this golden cross hinges on favorable market conditions and the sustained momentum of Ether. This convergence of moving averages represents a pivotal moment that traders are keenly watching, as it could influence Ether's future price movement.
Summary
The crypto market experienced monumental growth in 2023, with a staggering $849 billion surge, largely propelled by Bitcoin's exceptional 160.4% increase. This surge significantly elevated Bitcoin's dominance by 22.6%, indicating a shift toward larger market cap cryptos and signaling a risk-off move. However, in the quarterly and monthly scopes, smaller market cap cryptos outshone larger ones, signaling risk-on sentiments as they surpassed Bitcoin's dominance amid declining stablecoin influence. These varied trends showcase the market's dynamic nature, influenced by different crypto categories and changing stablecoin dominance.
Bitcoin's price, since November 9th, 2022, has shown an upward trend, with projections indicating potential price ranges. The annual ROI trends align with price trends but may diverge from expected outcomes due to fluctuating momentum. Weekly and monthly charts highlight shifting momentum and potential consolidations, with key indicators like RSI, MACD, and moving averages influencing future price directions.
Ether, following an upward price trajectory since November 9th, 2022, presents a similar trend, though the outcomes are subject to momentum fluctuations. Annual ROI trends follow price movements but may deviate, mirroring Bitcoin's dynamics. Ether's charts exhibit cautious positivity, with indicators like RSI, MACD, and moving averages indicating potential pivotal moments and future price actions. The market's intricate patterns suggest potential shifts in trend directions, highlighting the need for close monitoring amid varying sentiments and market dynamics.
