In this post, Scott Alexander lays out his current views on AI timelines, safety, geopolitics, and possible futures, offering probabilistic forecasts for AGI, superintelligence, diffusion, doom risk, AI pauses, and post-scarcity outcomes. He presents himself as worried but not maximally pessimistic: expecting transformative AI within decades, seeing serious alignment and misuse risks, but also leaving substantial room for successful safety work, international coordination, and even utopian possibilities.
* 00:00 - Introduction
* 00:17 - Timelines
* 13:13 - Safety
* 25:59 - Geopolitics
* 33:15 - Other Outcomes
