Hi everyone, I’m Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we will go over the transition of power that will happen today in Virginia as the inauguration of the new governor and lieutenant governor and attorney general happened today in Virginia.
00:17.36
Sam Shirazi
And then we will go over some news in terms of what’s been going on with the redistricting referendum, which aside from the transition of power, the big news in Richmond is a lot of speculation about how things are going to be going with the redistricting referendum. And we got a little bit more clarity this week, so I’ll go over that. But first, I did want to talk about the inauguration, obviously historic inauguration for governor as we will the Virginia will have its first woman governor.
00:46.26
Sam Shirazi
for Lieutenant Governor, another historic inauguration for her because Ghazal Hashmi will become the first Muslim person and the first South Asian person elected statewide in Virginia.
00:57.15
Sam Shirazi
And Jay Jones will become the first Black Attorney General in Virginia history. Now, every time there’s an inauguration like this, either at the presidential level or at the state level, I often think about the beginning of John F. Kennedy’s inauguration speech, in my opinion, one of the best inauguration speech speeches in American history. and There’s kind of the a quote that i always remember.
01:22.24
Sam Shirazi
It doesn’t matter if the Republican or Democrats being inaugurated. I remember this quote from John F. Kennedy. He said, quote, we observe today not a victory of party, but a celebration of freedom, symbolizing in an end as well as a beginning, signifying renewal as well as change. And I think that captures...
01:40.82
Sam Shirazi
You know, the fact that, you know, these inaugurations, while obviously they’re celebrating one person winning the election, it really is a celebration of the fact that there is democracy in this country, for elections, freedom. And I think that’s ultimately what we’re celebrating because a lot of parts of the world don’t have don’t get the opportunity to do that. Obviously, there’s been. a lot of unrest going on in Iran, for example, and you see that people there are really struggling for their freedom.
02:09.82
Sam Shirazi
And it’s nice to see here in Virginia that we will see a transition of power from a Republican to a Democrat. And, you know, there had been some tension between outgoing Governor Glanionkin and an incoming Governor Spanberger over the search for the UVA president. And there were some letters that went back and forth. But at the end of the day,
02:31.22
Sam Shirazi
This week in Richmond, they have seemed to patch things up and we’re all friendly with each other. And that’s nice to see in the sense of, you know, it’s important that there’ll be orderly transition of power.
02:44.07
Sam Shirazi
And anyways, so... We will see the inauguration today, and then obviously Governor Spanberger and the other elected officials will be hi the hitting the ground running with their new administration trying to implement the agenda that people elected them to do, primarily focusing on the cost of living issue. I think Governor Spanberger, that will be her first priority because she knows that was what a lot of people voted for her to do is to try to make things more affordable. And so I’m sure that will be one of her top focuses as governor.
03:17.97
Sam Shirazi
And I think, you know, we’ll just have to wait and see how things go in terms of the General Assembly, what kind of bills they send her. And yeah, anyways, I mean, in some ways, the inauguration is kind of the culmination of the election that happened last year in Virginia. It’s kind of the final Final moment that officially marks the transition of power as we saw the blue wave that came into Virginia last year come into office as the Democrats will have a trifecta for the first time since Governor Northam left office.
03:49.42
Sam Shirazi
And it’s the first time, I think I mentioned this fact before, it’s the first time an incoming governor will have a trifecta in Virginia since Doug Wilder all the way way back after the 1989 election. So definitely historic election here in Virginia, historic inauguration. And, you know, I’m sure it’ll be interesting to see what Governor Spanberger says in her inauguration speech. So i don’t want to dwell on it too much. i think we’ll just have to wait and see how everything plays out. I did want to shift focus to a slightly different topic.
04:19.06
Sam Shirazi
which is the redistricting referendum. Because as much as there is a lot of focus on affordability and things that, you know, more bread and butter issues, I think in terms of the pure politics of it, the redistricting referendum in the short term is going to take up a lot of oxygen for the General Assembly as they work to pass that through.
04:39.62
Sam Shirazi
And then the other big thing that will have to happen is the campaign for the redistricting referendum will happen in the winter and spring. And that’s already starting to take shape. And just this week, we got more clarity about what the redistricting referendum is going to look like.
04:56.62
Sam Shirazi
So just for some context, the General Assembly actually so met on Wednesday before the inauguration of the new governor and lieutenant governor. and Attorney General. And so you had this you know three-day period where the executive branch was still controlled by the Republicans, yet the legislative branch was controlled by the Democrats. It was interesting to see Lieutenant Governor Earl Sears, she, in her final days in office, still presided over the Virginia Senate because she is still the Lieutenant Governor.
05:24.10
Sam Shirazi
And I think you know she did that job. I’m sure it’s not easy after a tough campaign and and having a loss like that, but she came in and did her job and you know, at the end of the day, the Democrats are were in control of the state Senate and the House Delegates. And so typically what happens is they are trying to get the redistricting referendum going as soon as possible because they know that the clock is ticking in terms of trying to get that done this year. So really, the first thing the Virginia Democrats have done is try to move forward these constitutional amendments with redistricting getting the most attention. However, it’s important to remember redistricting is not the only referendum. There are three other referendums that the Democrats are trying to pass this year in Virginia.
06:06.86
Sam Shirazi
Those are on reproductive rights. trying to enshrine that in the Virginia Constitution, trying to rep repeal the ban on same-sex marriage and enshrine the right to same-sex marriage in the Virginia Constitution, and then also restore voting rights to people convicted of felonies once they leave prison. So those are all also happening, but obviously the big national attention is on the redistricting referendum.
06:29.33
Sam Shirazi
that is going to happen in the spring. And I wanted to update kind of a couple of things on the legal side of things and then on the political side. So on the legal side, there is a court case that is working its way through the system.
06:41.08
Sam Shirazi
The Republicans challenging the redistricting referendum, basically on kind of procedural grounds that they Virginia Democrats didn’t properly follow the Virginia constitution. The lower court didn’t stop the Democrats this week from moving forward with the redistricting referendum. And that’s not super surprising. Typically courts don’t want to get involved in the middle of a legislative process. Once everything is finalized, then the court might come in. And that’s basically what the lower court said. They basically said it was too early for us to get involved and we’re not going to tell the legislature what to do. Once they pass whatever they want to pass, then we can take a look at it. So the case is not settled.
07:21.10
Sam Shirazi
I think once the final votes are in and and the referendum is going to be placed on the ballot, I think the Republicans will then go to the courts and try to block it. We’ll see what the lower court says. We’ll see if it eventually gets to the Virginia Supreme Court. So just keep in mind, there is that legal process in the background going on.
07:38.86
Sam Shirazi
you know As I mentioned, I think courts are often hesitant to get too involved in these political questions, particularly in Virginia, where you have a less political court system. So we’ll see if the you know legal challenges will go anywhere. But you know for now, let’s assume that redistricting will move forward. I think we got some clarity from the Virginia Democrats this week about what the redistricting referendum is going to look like.
08:02.12
Sam Shirazi
So the big question that we’re still waiting on is whether the map that will finally be passed if the redistricting referendum is successful, will there be a 10-1 map or a nine two map? Will there be a map with 10 Democrats and one Republican, or will it be nine Democrats and two Republicans? We still don’t know the answer to that, but we got a little bit of a clue about when we might get an answer because the Virginia Democrats basically said they will release the maps before the redistricting referendum and they said they would do it by January 30th. And so we’ll see what happens. I mean, i assume it’s going to be one map and they’re going to say, you know, vote for the referendum and you’ll get this map. It’s possible they release a few maps and say, well, one of these will be the maps.
08:49.01
Sam Shirazi
We’ll just have to wait and see. And I think that’ll answer the big question 10192.
08:54.81
Sam Shirazi
I think there’s a lot of speculation about which one it’s going to be. Obviously, we’ll just have to wait and see. And once the maps come out, I’m sure I’ll do a podcast and do a whole episode on you know what the maps look like, what what happens if it passes.
09:09.54
Sam Shirazi
And this week, we also kind of saw the beginnings of the redistricting campaign. I think the Democratic side or the yes side started putting out its first ad. And we can already see that both sides are going to have campaigns, yes and no.
09:24.64
Sam Shirazi
The National Democrats and National Republicans are going to fund both sides. So I think... that will be something that will be happening in the next few weeks and months in Virginia. And you know I wanted to kind of just think through what is the likelihood that this referendum will pass? I think on the side saying it will pass is basically the idea that if they be if the Democrats are able to make this a referendum on Trump,
09:48.86
Sam Shirazi
I think there’s a higher likelihood it’s going to pass because you know the the actual question about redistricting and the maps, I think most people aren’t going to get into the nuances of that. They’re basically going to say, you know this is a way to maybe stick it to Trump or this is a way to stick it to the Democrats. you know if If you want to stick it to Trump, you’ll vote yes on the referendum. If you want to stick it to the Democrats, you’ll vote no on the referendum. I think that’s ultimately what the referendum is going to become. And if and if it does become that, that’s going to be good news for the Democrats.
10:16.70
Sam Shirazi
I also think the Democrats are better organized. I think, you know at least in the short term, they kind of have to plan. they’ve beene They want to execute this. The Virginia Democrats are kind of riding high after the election results. And so they’re in a good place to try to run a campaign.
10:31.87
Sam Shirazi
I think on the side of no, you know what do they have going for them? I think it’s basically Virginia is not that blue of a state. And so all you would need is basically all the Trump supporters to vote no. And then you just have to peel off some independents.
10:48.66
Sam Shirazi
You know, people who, you know, they might not like Trump, but they don’t like the idea of redistricting mid-cycle. i think there is a chance that could happen. But, you know, that was basically Jason Meyers’ strategy in the attorney general race. His strategy was, you know, I’ll get all the Republicans to vote for me and then I’ll peel off independence.
11:05.12
Sam Shirazi
And he really wasn’t able to do that because the attorney general race, again, kind of became a referendum. Do you like Trump or you don’t like Trump? And so I think the Virginia Republicans do have a challenge. What they have going for them, like I said, is Virginia is not that blue of a state. I mean, Harris only won it by 6% in 2024. Obviously, Spanberger had a big landslide last year by 15%. And again, you know, what is the turnout going to look like?
11:30.20
Sam Shirazi
you know If it’s a lower turnout, that’s probably better for Democrats because they’re more fired up. They have more high propensity voters. So I think the lower the turnout, frankly, the better for the Democrats in the redistricting referendum.
12:12.36
Sam Shirazi
So I think it’s going to be a really interesting campaign. you know Virginia typically doesn’t have these one-off referendum campaigns. When there are referendums in Virginia, they’re usually on the general election ballot.
12:26.66
Sam Shirazi
And so I think this is a pretty unique election for Virginia. pretty That makes it unpredictable because we don’t really have a lot of previous precedent for this type of thing. And yeah, so it’ll be it’ll be really interesting.
12:39.64
Sam Shirazi
to see how the campaign plays out. I think we got a little bit more clarity about what might happen. i think the maps are the really big question mark at this point, and we’re just going to wait and see what it looks like.
12:52.92
Sam Shirazi
And I wanted to kind of explain some of the dynamics between 9-2 and 10-1. So I think the people pushing 10-1, that means 10 Democrats and one Republican, I think the logic from that side of the Democratic aisle is basically After California, Virginia is the only other state that’s going to redistrict mid-cycle. And we don’t know what the Republicans are going to do in Florida. it’s It’s possible they’re going to try to gerrymander Florida to the max even more. I mean, Florida is already gerrymandered and it’s possible they’re going to gerrymander to the max in Florida. And so we in Virginia need to gerrymander as much as we can because we’re basically the only state that can gerrymander at this point. And so the logic being, you know, we got to push this 10-1 and, you know,
13:37.56
Sam Shirazi
If some incumbents aren’t happy, you know it is what it is. If the Republicans aren’t happy, you know whatever. like It does ultimately doesn’t matter. This basically has become a referendum on Trump. And no matter what map we propose, if people are upset at Trump, we’re going to win the referendum campaign. I mean, that’s kind of the logic behind 10-1 map.
13:55.54
Sam Shirazi
I think, and so the people, you know, my sense is the people supporting a 10-1 map are more the national Democrats. You know, it kind of logically makes sense that Hakeem Jeffries and the House Democrats will want the Virginia Democrats to go maximum.
14:07.62
Sam Shirazi
I think you’ve heard certainly State Senator Luis Lucas, who is the president pro temp of the Virginia Senate, being very vocal about wanting to be 10-1, and even Speaker Don Scott in the House of Delegates. He has also been open to the idea of a 10-1 map. So you you kind of have, it seems like the General Assembly is,
14:25.56
Sam Shirazi
wants to do more of a 10 one type map and even David Bussi, M.D.: people who you wouldn’t necessarily think of as supporting a 10 one map like state Senator Skylar Van Valkenburg, who was a big supporter of the redistricting amendment back in 2020 David Bussi, he has said he’s open to a 10 one map because I think This essentially seems like a very unique situation, kind of an exception because of what happened in Texas and potentially Florida and and North Carolina and some of these other states. So that’s kind of the 10-1 side of things.
14:53.91
Sam Shirazi
I think on the 9-2 side, they’ve been less vocal. you know this is just me maybe reading the tea leaves. My sense is Spanberger potentially could be more supportive of a 9-2 map.
15:05.34
Sam Shirazi
Partly, I think that’s kind of her political temperament. She’s less partisan, I would say, than some other Democrats. Partly, I think she’s also maybe being realistic. A 9-2 map would be more likely to win in a referendum because if you if you show someone a 9-2 map,
15:20.32
Sam Shirazi
and say, will you vote for the referendum? you know They might be somewhat favorable to that, like an independent voter. But if you show them a 10-1 map, they might have some doubts because it seems too extreme. So I think there’s kind of this pragmatic argument that you know while you know whatever, 10-1 in the ideal world might be best, I think we should be safe, do 9-2. That way, the referendum is more likely to pass.
15:42.20
Sam Shirazi
I can see Spanberger potentially you know making that argument. And then, you know I’m just again speculating, I think some of the incumbents you know may prefer a 9-2 map because you can draw a 9-2 map where basically most of the incumbents are protected. they won’t Their districts look roughly the same as they are right now.
16:02.66
Sam Shirazi
And essentially all you would do is make the fifth district a Charlottesville to Roanoke seat, and that only hurt really hurts the Republicans. Whereas if you draw a 10-1 map, I think all the incumbent Democratic Congress people will have to have slightly different maps, and some of them will have to have very different maps. And I think they’re going to be hesitant to do that just because that opens them up to primary challenges. you know I’m just being realistic about the nature of how people you know politicians think and and their main concern. So you know you kind of see this dynamic that maybe Spanberger and the Virginia House des congressional Dems might be
16:38.78
Sam Shirazi
more in favor of a 9-2 map, and then you have the General Assembly and the Hakeem Jeffries trying to push a 10-1 map. And, you know, I guess the one other thing I should say is you often hear things like, oh this is all within the General Assembly. you know, Spanberger doesn’t play a role. I mean, generally it’s true that referendums to the Virginia Constitution are completely within the General Assembly. The governor doesn’t play a role putting them on, at least getting them passed initially in terms of potentially having a referendum.
17:08.58
Sam Shirazi
However, the mechanics of having a referendum, putting it on the ballot, funding a referendum campaign, and then the mechanics of actually having the new maps in 2026, for example, changing the primary dates, that all requires legislation. So Spanberger does have a role You know, theoretically, if we had a Republican governor, this wouldn’t be happening because the Republican governor could just veto everything.
17:31.59
Sam Shirazi
I don’t anticipate Spanberger vetoing this, but I think behind the scenes, maybe she’ll be using some of her influence to try to and see what the final maps look like. And, you know, at the end of the day,
18:25.56
Sam Shirazi
It was done by the Virginia Supreme Court because the redistricting commission was not able to draw the maps. So the person who probably got hurt the most by Virginia redistricting was a Elaine Luria. So her district became somewhat more red and she ended up losing in 2022. But I think the second biggest loser of Virginia redistricting the last round was Spanberger because one, her district kind of shifted from central Virginia and the Richmond area up to northern Virginia.
18:52.40
Sam Shirazi
And then two, you know her district, while it did become bluer, I think was still a competitive seat and in territory that she was not super familiar with. She decided to run in that district. She didn’t face a primary challenge.
19:06.90
Sam Shirazi
And then she won the general election in a pretty competitive race. So I think Spanberger has gone through the redistricting process. She knows what it’s like to have that uncertainty.
19:17.14
Sam Shirazi
So it’ll be kind of interesting to see a governor who has also served as a member of Congress, has gone through redistricting, knows what that’s like. And I think she’s kind of the biggest wild card here because she has power, she has influence. I don’t think she’s going to you know, in public go out and say a lot about redistricting, but I do think behind the scenes, it’ll be interesting to see the role she plays. So, yeah, I mean, i i kind of wanted to kind of explain what I’m seeing with Virginia redistricting right now. I will have more info and more speculation as we get more info. I think the big the big unknown is just
19:52.04
Sam Shirazi
what do the proposed map by the Democrats look like? We got a little bit clarity, because I i wasn’t sure if the Virginia Democrats were actually gonna release the map before the referendum. They’ve confirmed that they’re gonna do that. They said that they’re gonna do it by January 30th.
20:04.70
Sam Shirazi
So that’ll be a big date when they do release the new maps. I’ll probably do a podcast immediately after that. And so anyways, I will continue to cover things in Virginia, always interesting.
20:17.73
Sam Shirazi
And yeah, I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. And this has been Federal Fallout. And i’ll join you next time.
