Hi, everyone. I’m Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the Virginia Elections. This episode, we will go over a ruling from the Virginia Supreme Court and then also preview the start of early voting this Friday in the redistricting referendum.
00:14.71
Sam Shirazi
So the big news that came out on Wednesday was that the Virginia Supreme Court had issued a ruling. We had been waiting for it. And finally, it had issued a ruling. Unfortunately, didn’t give us the final answer on Virginia redistricting, but did give us an answer on whether the referendum was going to move forward. And the Virginia Supreme Court said that the redistricting referendum itself, the voting can take place. So the court was very clear that the Redistricting referendum is going to happen. Early voting was going to start on Friday.
00:45.94
Sam Shirazi
However, there’s an important caveat where they put some language in there basically saying that this is not the final order. we have not made our final decision. And so we’re going to let people vote. And then after that, we will give you our final say on whether this was legal or not. And so I think that’s leaving a lot of uncertainty in the air.
01:04.36
Sam Shirazi
But we did get some kind of short-term answers. People will start voting on Friday. And then obviously there’s going to be a campaign. And then on April 21st, we will have election day and we will see whether the registry referendum passes or not. So a lot to talk about. The first thing I wanted to do was kind of break down the Supreme Court decision and kind of explain what happened. And I think a lot of people were a little bit confused about why the court is kicking the can down the road.
01:30.37
Sam Shirazi
So to give you some background, the Virginia Supreme Court had previously said that the redistricting referendum could go forward. However, there was a new lawsuit and a judge in Tazewell County in entered a new temporary restraining order basically saying that the referendum couldn’t go forward. So it was pretty clear that the Virginia Supreme Court was going to have to say something because at least Tazewell County was unsure whether it could actually start the holding the referendum and having early voting start.
01:57.64
Sam Shirazi
So it was very clear that Supreme Court, we were expecting that they were going to do something, but it took a while. And I was kind of surprised. It almost went at the last minute, two days before start of early voting, they gave their decision.
02:09.51
Sam Shirazi
And it’s an interesting one. so So one of the things the court said was this was not really a temporary restraining order. It was actually an injunction. An injunction is basically a more long term thing, whereas a tmporary restraining orders in more short term. So the Supreme Court like was like, this is a big deal. What the court did was a big deal. So we have to rule on it. And I think what was interesting is they were grappling on what to do. They were grappling on whether to make the final decision now or basically wait until after the referendum.
02:39.61
Sam Shirazi
So the Virginia Supreme Court really emphasized this court case from 1912. And this court case is called Scott versus James. And they kept citing this court case. So I think this was really important. And they felt like they really had to abide by this decision.
02:53.27
Sam Shirazi
And this decision basically said that you first have to let the people vote, and then you can decide on the legality of it. And you can tell in the Supreme Court decision, they’re really grappling with this. I think they they don’t really like this outcome, but they feel like they have no other choice. They feel like for various reasons, it’s not within their power to really stop the election. And it it would be basically undemocratic for the judicial branch to basically say to voters, you can’t vote. However, they also said, well, once the voting is done, then we can decide what ends up happening.
03:26.78
Sam Shirazi
And I think it creates this odd scenario where hypothetically the redistricting referendum could pass and then the Virginia Supreme Court could say, actually, this is not legal and so redistricting is not going to happen.
03:39.94
Sam Shirazi
the court was very explicit that it will not rule if the redistricting referendum is not passed. Because the the court basically said that it’s going to be a moot issue. There’s no point in us ruling.
03:51.56
Sam Shirazi
However, the court did open the door and very was explicitly said that they could overturn the referendum if after they hear all the arguments and they think about it, they decide that this was not legal.
04:04.23
Sam Shirazi
And I think really you could tell in this opinion, They didn’t want to rush the decision. They really wanted to think this one through. They knew it was important. Obviously, the clock’s ticking. Early voting is going start.
04:15.04
Sam Shirazi
They knew they had to put something out there. And so I think their ultimate call was that they are going to allow the redistricting referendum to go forward, and then they’re going to make the the final call later. And essentially, it’s kicking the can down the road again. They kicked the can down the road last time, and this time they again kicked the can down the road.
04:32.74
Sam Shirazi
And I think the other part of the opinion that got a lot of attention was towards the end. So they basically talk about, okay, there’s all these issues that parties have raised, that this was done without enough notice, that the notices were not posted, that the language of the referendum is biased. So, you know, Republicans have raised a lot of arguments, and the court kind of summarized them all.
04:54.69
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, at the end, The court put the sentence in there and it said, quote, these issues are of grave concern to the court. And I think I’m a lawyer. Anytime you’re a lawyer and you hear a court saying something is of grave concern, that is going to trigger you because you’re that that’s telling you the court’s grappling with something.
05:18.32
Sam Shirazi
And so... The exact language is important. So the court said these issues are of grave concern. Not we have grave concerns. They said these issues of of are of grave concern.
05:30.97
Sam Shirazi
And I think you can read this two ways. One of them is grave concern just basically means like it’s super important. Like we get it. Like this is an important issue. We’re going to take our time. We’re going to think this through.
05:42.57
Sam Shirazi
We’re going rush it. So it’s a grave concern and we don’t want to you know come up with something you know right before early voting. We want to think this through. I think the other way you can read this, and this is certainly how the Republicans want to read it, is grave concern means they have grave concerns and they’re really worried about this. They just felt like it was not the correct procedural posture to strike down the referendum.
06:05.09
Sam Shirazi
But they’re leaving the door open and so they’re kind of you know this is put in the opinion to show that they’re actually you know skeptical of what the Democrats are trying to do. They just couldn’t stop it right now. I mean, I don’t know. I think you can read it both ways. We’re ultimately going to get the final answer after redistricting referendum, if it passes, when the Supreme Court will have to make their final call. you know I think the the last one of the last lines of opinion, it says, issuing injunction to keep Virginians from the polls is not the proper way to make the decision. So I think really the court...
06:35.98
Sam Shirazi
Bottom line, did not want to be rushed into it. I think the the Virginia Republicans, when they filed the second lawsuit and got the the judge in Tazewell County to issue the injunction, they were trying to get the Supreme Court to make a final decision very quickly. They were trying to force the court’s hand.
07:22.01
Sam Shirazi
My gut was the court was not going to have its hand forced. basically where these important decisions are made in this posture, like right before a deadline and the court makes the ultimate decision. I think the Virginia Supreme Court didn’t want to be put in that position. i think they didn’t really appreciate having to rush their decision. And so I think at the end of the day they kicked the can down the road.
07:39.88
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, the Democrats, they’re going to take that. They want to live to fight another day. They want to see the referendum happen. They think they’re going to win the referendum. And so Democrats were generally happy. i think, you know, in an ideal world for Democrats, the entire issue would have been resolved and they don’t have to worry about it anymore, but they’ll take it. I think Republicans obviously were disappointed because they didn’t want to fight the redistricting referendum.
08:03.50
Sam Shirazi
But they’ve accepted that it’s going to happen. I think they have a little bit of hope with some of this language in the opinion that maybe the court is actually very skeptical and they will end up striking it down. Although,
08:14.97
Sam Shirazi
I think the thing I’ve heard from a lot of people is if the state goes through this whole process of having a referendum and then potentially, you know, two million plus Virginians are going to vote and then it passes. i mean, is the Virginia Supreme Court in you know May really going to say, actually, this whole thing was illegal. It shouldn’t have happened.
08:36.44
Sam Shirazi
And we’re just going to throw it all out. I mean, in their opinion, the Virginia Supreme Court said we reserve the right to do that. And so I think you can’t discount the possibility that that can actually happen.
08:48.44
Sam Shirazi
However, you also have to think about these judges. They’re human beings. They understand the optics of that. I think perhaps in their mind, they think that the redistricting referendum is not going to pass.
08:59.07
Sam Shirazi
or at least there’s a chance it’s not going to pass. And so that will really fix the problem for them. Maybe that’s wishful thinking because I think, you know, more likely than not, my gut is telling me it’s going to pass. So I suspect we’re going to be right back here.
09:13.79
Sam Shirazi
And there’s going to be a there’s goingnna decision is going to have to be made after the referendum if it passes. Because remember, let’s assume it passes. you know Filing deadlines are coming up.
09:25.08
Sam Shirazi
People need to know, are they are they running in the old maps or are they running on the new maps? And so as much as the Virginia Supreme Court like kicking likes kicking hat the can down the road, at some point they are going to have to make a decision.
09:37.47
Sam Shirazi
And give the candidates running an answer. Are they running in the old maps? Are they running in the new maps? I think right now most people are assuming that the new maps are going to happen because of that you know the unlikelihood that the Virginia Supreme Court is going to say, actually, we’re just going to throw out the referendum and it should never should have been run.
09:58.03
Sam Shirazi
Anyways, a lot of really interesting legal stuff. you know I think at the end of the day, you know we all wish that the Virginia Supreme Court would you know give us the final opinion. But I respect the their thought process. And you know no matter what you think, like they do not want to be rushed into this. and And I understand that. And it’s it’s an important decision. And I guess the last thing I’ll say about the Virginia Supreme Court, I mean, every once in a while, they they’re in the news.
10:21.22
Sam Shirazi
But these kind of very weighty constitutional issues do not come up that often at the Virginia Supreme Court. It’s not like the United States Supreme Court where all they do is constitutional issues and really important cases.
10:32.55
Sam Shirazi
i mean, there are also normal Supreme Court cases, but there’s also like you know every term there’s going to be one or two really big cases. Virginia Supreme Court’s really not like that. And so I think they’re a little uncomfortable being in this position.
10:44.02
Sam Shirazi
They don’t love the idea that they are going to have to decide this really important issue. They know no matter how they rule, one side is going to be upset at them. And so I think at the end of the day, like they don’t like it, but you know, they’re the highest court in Virginia. They get paid the big bucks to make these decisions. they’re They’re going to have to make the call one, one way or another, unless the referendum doesn’t pass. And then I guess they’re off the hook, but either way, we will find out what the Virginia Supreme court does. And I’ll obviously follow, follow, um,
11:12.43
Sam Shirazi
All that and you know update you as it goes along. So let’s move to early voting because 100% early voting is going to be starting this Friday across Virginia.
11:22.90
Sam Shirazi
All parts of Virginia, there there is going to be in-person early voting. Anyone who’s a registered voter can go down to their local election office and cast the ballot. And then also this Friday, absentee ballots are gonna be mailed out. Primarily, this is gonna be people who are on the permanent absentee list.
11:42.87
Sam Shirazi
I’ve talked about this before. The permit absentee list tends to be very Democratic. So lot of Democrats are going to start getting mail ballots. you know Realistically, I don’t know how many people are going to early vote on the first day or the first week in person, but the mail ballots are going to be going out. And I think that’s one of the advantages off the bat that Democrats are going to have is You know, people are going to be getting ballots in the mail and then they’ll realize, oh, there’s a referendum.
12:09.23
Sam Shirazi
You know, I think information is a big deal. Like Virginia typically does not have these referendums in the spring. A lot of people probably don’t know that there’s a redistricting referendum.
12:20.98
Sam Shirazi
And so. I think both sides are trying to educate their voters, trying to say, why are we doing this referendum? For the Democrats, who trying to explain why people should vote yes, why this is necessary. For the Republicans, obviously the opposite. They’re trying to explain why they people shouldn’t vote for this.
12:35.76
Sam Shirazi
Then there’s the people in the middle, the independents, who have to be convinced one way or another. And then you know there’s going to be a lot of spending by both sides. I think the Democrats right now seem to have the financial advantage And, you know, they seem to be more fired up, have more momentum. I’ve seen a lot of comments about I can’t believe how many ads there are on the yes side of the referendum. Why aren’t there more ads on the no side from people who don’t support the referendum? So I think, you know, there’s a lot going on.
13:04.95
Sam Shirazi
I suspect early voting is not going to be super heavy at the beginning. I think we’re not going to be seeing. Governor level early voting numbers, if I had to guess, this is going to be less, maybe more, maybe not even like a midterm, maybe like closer to 2023. So 2023, Virginia had state elections just for the state Senate and the House of Delegates. I think we might see that level of turnout for early voting. Although, you know, who knows? I think one of the interesting things will be to see how much early voting there is.
13:33.17
Sam Shirazi
Can you extrapolate how much turnout there might be? You know, there’s going to be the over and overananalyst analysis of early voting, which always happens. Are red counties voting or blue counties voting? You know, that stuff kind of gets a little bit old. But at the end of the day, you know, but we’ll have some data. I’ll try to give you my input when we get a little bit of it.
13:53.44
Sam Shirazi
Overall, it’s going to be kind of an interesting campaign. I’ll try my best to cover it all. And yeah, I mean, it’s it’s a little bit up in the air how things are going to shake out But we’re going to just you know take it one day at a time. I think the other crazy thing about this redistricting referendum – so so on on the one hand, you have the referendum stuff and the yes and no campaign and early voting and all that.
14:17.10
Sam Shirazi
you know Behind the scenes, I mean the candidates are going to have to start announcing and some have already announced and start running in these new seats potentially. with this uncertainty that maybe they’ll be running in the old seats if the if the referendum doesn’t go through or if the Virginia Supreme Court steps in at the last minute after the referendum passes.
14:34.99
Sam Shirazi
So in the background, there’s going to be all these primaries, and I haven’t even talked about that because like there’s been so much else to cover. So you know it’s going to be interesting to see how those candidates are doing it. you know are they running are going Are they going to wait till the referendum’s over and then really go into high gear?
14:51.50
Sam Shirazi
Some of the candidates are really already hitting it hitting the trail, doing all the things they need to do. So you have a lot going on both with the referendum, but a parallel to referendum, there’s going to be primaries on the Democratic side. The Republicans have a lot of problems on their end in terms of trying to fight the redistricting referendum.
15:10.67
Sam Shirazi
And then some of their incumbents or all of their incumbents are basically threatened either in the primary or the general election. So a lot, a lot, a lot to talk about in Virginia. I guess the last thing I should end on, you I should note that obviously you know this past weekend,
15:26.10
Sam Shirazi
There was the start of military operations in the Middle East against the Iranian regime. That is taking up a lot of energy and news and focus. And so I don’t know how many people are thinking about the redistricting referendum versus what’s going on there. So I think that’s going to Greg Foncannon, grab a lot of the headlines and and in some ways, perhaps distract from the redistricting referendum, I don’t really know which side that helps, I would say. Greg Foncannon, To the extent that Republicans need more focus on the redistricting referendum about why it shouldn’t happen.
15:59.51
Sam Shirazi
Because I think the Democrats generally, they’ve had the leg up for the most part. i think the challenge the Republicans going to have is they have to, one, inform the voters that there’s a redistricting referendum and then tell them, two, to not vote for it.
16:13.95
Sam Shirazi
And I think when there’s all this other stuff going on or it’s just not in the news, I think it’s going to be harder. And we’ve talked about this like in other contexts where you know the more a race kind of becomes – the focus of things and the republicans can get out their base the better the more a race is kind of under the radar that’s actually going to be better for the democrats because the democratic base is more i would say engaged these days because they’re so upset at what’s going on in dc so a lot of interesting dynamics like it’s kind of an interesting time to have a redistricting referendum everything going on in the world everything going on in the country it’s spring people aren’t expecting an election this is the only thing on the ballot there’s no
16:56.29
Sam Shirazi
candidates running right now. So you know I’ll do my best to cover it all and you know give you the updates both on the legal side and on the election side. I mean, obviously the election is going to take precedent for the next few weeks. Then I can turn to the legal side of things. The last thing I’ll i’ll mention before I close out this podcast is I talked about At beginning, I said this is federal fallout, the Virginia elections. I’ve kind of dropped the 2025 because we are going to have another election, the redistricting referendum special election. So I think I’ve kind of moved into the next phase of Virginia elections, so to speak. And then after the redistricting referendum, we’ll do the redistricting.
17:35.63
Sam Shirazi
primary and then there’ll be the general election. So still a lot of fun stuff to cover in Virginia. I think for the next few weeks, there’s going to be a lot going on. April 21st is going to be a big date.
17:45.39
Sam Shirazi
The political world is going to be focusing on Virginia on that date because that’s when the referendum results will start coming in. So I’ll give you the updates as we start getting them in terms of polls and you know early voting numbers and all that good stuff. So I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. I will continue to do this as the wild ride that is the Virginia elections never seems to stop. And, you know, maybe one day we’ll finally get the the final Virginia Supreme Court decision on whether this whole thing is legal. But for now, early voting is starting. Make sure you go out and early vote if that’s what you’re interested in doing. And or you can wait till election day. But definitely if you’re in Virginia, plan to vote by April 21st in the redistricting referendum. So,
18:26.71
Sam Shirazi
This has been Federal Fallout, and i will join you next time.
