Hi everyone, I’m Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Will Fall Out of Virginia Elections. This episode we will go over the results of the redistricting referendum after the results came in on Tuesday night and it looks like yes is going to win by probably around 4% when all the votes are in.
00:15.61
Sam Shirazi
And yeah, really interesting results. Honestly, kind of what we expected based off the vibes, based off the polls. So what I wanted to do is kind of break down the results, talk about them a little bit. I will do further analysis in other episodes.
00:29.63
Sam Shirazi
But I think the the thing that I wanted to note at the beginning is this podcast is called Federal Fallout. And people who have asked me, you going to change the name? And I thought about it. But, you know,
00:39.74
Sam Shirazi
There is still a lot of federal fallout going on in Virginia. i think this redistricting referendum is another federal fallout, not simply because President Trump started kind of asking Republican states to redistrict, which led to a response in Democratic states such as Virginia.
00:55.88
Sam Shirazi
But really, if you look at the results, the reason why YES won this campaign was in Northern Virginia. In all of Northern Virginia, YES did much better than the Harris margin 2024.
01:07.67
Sam Shirazi
And given that this was a relatively close result, I think the reason you can say it passed was the federal fallout in Northern Virginia. Other parts of Virginia, like Southwest Virginia, no did better than even President Trump did in 2024. So there were parts of Virginia that were really upset at this redistricting referendum where the Republicans did well.
01:27.58
Sam Shirazi
But in Northern Virginia, a lot of votes, they just didn’t do that well. And I think the logical explanation is it’s federal fallout. People are still upset at what happened in D.C. last year and continuing into this year. Specifically, people are upset at Doge.
01:42.68
Sam Shirazi
I think you know it was really toxic for the Republicans. That’s why they lost in 2025. And I think this redistricting referendum, while it was closer, certainly the Republicans ran a better campaign. I think they made they they did their best to try to make this a referendum really on the maps and gerrymandering. But at the end of the day, in Northern Virginia, a lot of those voters are just single issue voters and they’re gonna vote against the Republicans because they’re just upset at what’s going on. So I’ll kind of break all that down. I wanted is to talk about a few things before doing more of a deep dive into the federal fallout.
02:17.20
Sam Shirazi
you know Long story short, I think the early vote, the vibes and the polls were all on the money you know in terms of the early vote There was an indication that the more rural parts of Virginia were upset and they were turning out a higher number. I think the results here show that.
03:05.07
Sam Shirazi
with this result. And then finally, wanted to talk about the vibes. I think the vibes were very clear that yes had an advantage, but it was not overwhelming. We all had a sense that this was going to be closer than 25. had said in my last podcast that I thought the most likely outcome was a single digit yes win, and we ended up getting a single digit yes win. So not a lot surprising other than I would say the regional dynamics in Virginia in this election. And what I mean by that is really the blue parts of Virginia in Northern Virginia got bluer as compared to 2024. Most of the rest of Virginia got a little bit redder compared to 2024. And some parts of Virginia, like Southwest Virginia, got much redder. And I think, you know, there’s clearly an indication there was people upset in Southwest Virginia at the at this map.
03:54.40
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, I think while The Democrats got a win and I don’t want to take anything away from them. A win’s a win. I do think it has hurt their brand in parts of Virginia.
04:04.26
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, this kind of increasing polarization we’ve seen between rural and suburban areas has continued and this referendum has made it even worse. So I do think... you know not to rain on the Democrats parade, but they do get a temporary victory for this decade with these new maps. But I think going forward, it’ll be even harder to sell the Democratic brand in Southwest Virginia, other parts of rural Virginia, because I think a lot of those voters were clearly upset. And you could see that in the results and the turnout. So I don’t want to pretend like this is 100% great news for the Democrats. They didn’t get an overwhelming victory. And it looks like it’s going to be less of a victory than the attorney general race
04:41.73
Sam Shirazi
in 2025, which was kind of my benchmark. I had said that if the Democrats got a bigger victory than the attorney general race, that’s a good night for them. I’d say, yeah i don’t want to say it’s a good night for the Virginia Republicans because they still lost, but I do think they did better than expected. I think at the beginning of this referendum campaign when really, you know, it looked like they had basically no shot and they made it competitive and they had a shot But look, in politics, coming up short is not good enough. Being close is not good enough. You have to win. And the Virginia Democrats won. And, you know, I don’t want to take anything away from them either.
05:16.14
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, kind of going back to the the beginning of what I was talking about at the beginning of the podcast, you know, people that talk to me are going to change the name of the podcast. You’re continuing it. But, you know, it’s obviously things are different in 2025.
05:29.01
Sam Shirazi
And I thought about it. One of the things I wanted to I was thinking about changing my podcast name to is one election after another, because i will talk about it probably in my next episode. But we will have a primary on August 4th in Virginia. So there’s going to be another election coming up.
05:44.38
Sam Shirazi
But I think the federal fallout concept is still valid in Virginia. And I do think, you know, we’ve gotten to this point where. The Virginia Republicans, you know, they are going to be very upset at Northern Virginia and they’re going to blame everything on Northern Virginia. And I get that. And I get that a lot of rural voters are upset at Northern Virginia. But I do think there should also be a little bit of self-reflection about why some of these counties voted so heavily against the Republicans again. And this is you know the second election and in a row where they very clearly sent a message that they were upset with the Republican Party.
06:18.68
Sam Shirazi
you know As I was looking, as the results were coming in, i had flagged Loudoun as really important. you know they get They report really quickly. And I was looking at the results in Loudoun and the final result seems to be about 61-39.
06:32.68
Sam Shirazi
And as soon as I saw that Loudoun was going to be 61-39, I basically knew it was over because there’s no way the Virginia Republicans can win in Virginia if they lose Loudoun by 20 points. like Loudoun being 60-40 Democratic is not sustainable for the Virginia virginia Republicans. like They need to get that margin into the... you know they need to be in the 40s to be competitive in in Virginia. and And they just weren’t able to do it tonight. Even though in some parts of rural Virginia, they made up a lot of votes. They did better than I think people were expecting in parts of Virginia, but there just aren’t a lot of votes in these rural counties.
07:08.76
Sam Shirazi
And so you can improve by 5%, 10% in some of these rural counties. But if if you’re not doing well enough in Northern Virginia, it’s not going to matter. Other parts of Northern Virginia, Fairfax County, biggest county, most populated in in Virginia,
07:55.21
Sam Shirazi
In 2021, Glenn Youngkin was able to keep these margins closer. For example, Loudon was about 55-45 in 2021. He did not write off Northern Virginia. That’s one of the reasons he won. He kept the margins close enough. He got the rural turnout.
08:09.32
Sam Shirazi
I think the problem the Virginia Republicans have right now is they basically just written off Northern Virginia and they don’t even try to compete there anymore. and you’re just not gonna win in Virginia anymore if you do that. And you you know they could say, well, that’s not fair or whatever. I mean, at the end of the day, you know politics is about winning.
08:25.85
Sam Shirazi
And you know unless the Virginia Republicans are willing to just completely write off Virginia, they have to figure out a way to compete in Northern Virginia. And you know things can change. I’m not saying it’s going to be like this for the rest of time, but I think during the Trump 2.0 era for the rest of his administration,
08:44.76
Sam Shirazi
I think the Virginia Republicans are just in a really bad spot. And there was a lot of noise about Spanberger disapproval and Spanberger’s unpopular and all this stuff. And, you know, I think there that is true in certain parts of Virginia. Certainly in Southwest Virginia, there was anger in Shenandoah Valley. People are upset. There’s no doubt that There are parts of Virginia that are upset with the Democrats and they’re upset with Governor Spanberger.
09:09.81
Sam Shirazi
But I think the thing the Virginia Republicans don’t quite get is that there are other parts of Virginia, certainly very populated parts of Virginia, that are very upset at what’s going on in D.C. and President Trump. And they’re essentially single issue voters. Like they they will not listen to any arguments the Virginia Republicans make, similar to how maybe in southwest Virginia, the Virginia that the voters down there might not listen to the Virginia Democrats. We’ve just gotten very polarized.
09:35.24
Sam Shirazi
And, you know you know, I don’t think it’s great for our country. I don’t think it’s great for the democracy and for Virginia, but that’s where we are. And and that’s what the results show. And I think one thing both sides really need to reflect on is how do they win in the other side’s territory? Because I think Spanberger did make some inroads in more in some rural areas, certainly in exurban areas. She made some inroads.
09:56.72
Sam Shirazi
But I think some of those areas are upset right now. And I think the Democratic brand has has taken a hit. So certainly the Democrats have gotten something out of this in terms of a win.
10:08.21
Sam Shirazi
from their perspective, hopefully they’ll get a 10-1 map. We’ll talk about the Virginia Supreme Court at another time, but hopefully they’ll get a 10-1 map for at least three three election cycles, 2026, 2028, and 2030. However, it it it comes with a cost. and in In politics, everything comes with a cost. And, you you know, I think at the end of the day,
10:28.04
Sam Shirazi
They have hurt their brand in rural Virginia. And so they’re going to also have to reflect on that. But again, Virginia Republicans, not in a good spot right now. i think they they put up a good fight. It was closer than I expected. i think they they certainly you know did a good job getting out their voters and spreading the message they wanted to spread. But as as I mentioned, I think a good chunk of voters, especially in Northern Virginia, are just unwilling to basically listen to anything the Virginia Republicans say because they’re so upset at what’s going on in D.C. And so that’s never a good sign if if a if a chunk of voters are are not open to your message.
11:05.77
Sam Shirazi
Anyway, so a lot to unpack there. And I wanted to kind of give you my thoughts and and why I thought yes had passed. You know, it’s funny because people were asking me, you know, it’s looking like no’s ahead. are you sure that yes is going to pass? And I told them, like, look, you just got to wait for Northern Virginia. You got to wait for Fairfax.
11:24.04
Sam Shirazi
You know, once I saw Loudoun early in the night, you know, I knew it was over. And, you know, yes, it was closer than I expected. But I think...
11:33.20
Sam Shirazi
it’s just one of those things like the numbers are the numbers and the votes are the votes. And if the Democrats in Northern Virginia are getting, you know, 70, 30 margins, and then in outer Northern Virginia are getting 60, 40 margins, combining that with the Richmond area and Hampton Roads, it’s just, there’s really no way for the Virginia Republicans to win. And, and you know, we saw that again in this election. And I had mentioned this in my podcast a a few nights ago. You know, I talked about how,
12:02.53
Sam Shirazi
Virginia Republicans have the ceiling around 45, 46 percent. I think they they got higher than their ceiling. They may hit 48 percent this time. So in some ways, that’s an accomplishment. But, you know, they’re just the geography and politics of Virginia is such that it is so hard for the Virginia Republicans to get to 50 percent.
12:20.18
Sam Shirazi
I think it’s going to continue to be hard for them. And it’s pretty amazing if you go back. really all the way to 2009. So, you know, over 15 years, the Virginia Republicans have only been able to win one stateide statewide election since 2010.
12:47.16
Sam Shirazi
Interesting election for sure. I don’t want to kind of talk about next steps or what happens next in this podcast because, you know, I wanted to kind of just mainly talk about the election results. There’s a lot to unpack.
13:00.89
Sam Shirazi
A major, major caveat to this election result is the Virginia Supreme Court. Perhaps after the Republicans, some of the most unhappy people in Virginia are on the Virginia Supreme Court because they are gonna be forced to rule on this issue.
13:14.95
Sam Shirazi
They clearly wanted it, not from a political standpoint, but but they were hoping, I think, from a legal standpoint that they wouldn’t have to reach the merits because if if no had won, they would just dismiss the case and say, there’s nothing for us to rule on. Now there will be something for them to rule on. They do have to reach the merits.
13:33.19
Sam Shirazi
You know, we’ll see how that plays out. I think there’s going to be oral arguments. We’ll have to see what the Virginia Supreme Court does. I think they’re truly nonpartisan, so I don’t think they’re going to be putting on their partisan hat, but they’re also human beings. And I think it is going to be a tough sell to the Virginia Supreme Court to tell right now there’s over one and a half million people who voted yes in this referendum to tell the you know Virginia Supreme Court to ignore those one and a half million people.
14:00.89
Sam Shirazi
on on very kind of technical legal grounds. i mean I do think there are some valid technical legal arguments that Republicans can make, but conceptually in 2025, the Virginia General Assembly, both the Virginia House of Delegates and the Virginia State Senate passed this thing with majorities.
14:17.94
Sam Shirazi
The Democrats won in 2025. The Virginia House of Delegates and the Virginia State Senate again passed this thing with with majorities. It got put on the ballot, a majority of Virginians voted for it. I mean, is the Virginia Supreme Court really going to say, actually, you know, we brushed off the Virginia constitution and this, you know, something in in there actually prevents this from going into effect? Maybe.
14:40.50
Sam Shirazi
i don’t i don’t want to discount that possibility, but I do think these people are human beings and we just have to see what they’re they’re willing to do. And I think the oral argument is going to be really interesting. I’ll follow the legal stuff because I find it super interesting and I’ll keep you updated, but not a whole lot I can say now other than we’re just kind have to wait and see how that shakes out. August 4th will be a primary in Virginia.
15:41.94
Sam Shirazi
really just a polarized election where, you know, the hardcore ne D’s voted yes, the hardcore no’s, hardcore Republicans voted no. You know, the independents probably slightly voted no, if I had to guess, but not overwhelmingly. And that’s why yes was able to get the win. You know, I’ll continue to unpack all this stuff up in my next episode and i will continue the podcast focusing on Virginia. As I mentioned, it’s going to be one election after another in Virginia.
16:09.19
Sam Shirazi
I think, frankly, the primaries, if the new maps go into effect, I think the primary is going to be more interesting than general election. So that’ll be something to keep an eye on. But anyways, always fun times in Virginia elections. I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. I get good feedback on the podcast, get good feedback on my social media posts. I really appreciate everyone.
16:30.71
Sam Shirazi
You know, my goal is to try to inform people. I try to be as objective as possible. Sometimes I give you my hot takes, but, you know, I’m not... My main goal really is education and to give people a sense of what’s going on without too much spin. And I hope people you know feel that’s what I’m doing because I don’t really want to you know increase the partisanship because there’s so much partisanship as as there already is in in this country and and in Virginia. My goal is everyone can listen and get get something out of these podcasts.
16:56.98
Sam Shirazi
So again, thanks everyone who’s been listening. i will continue doing it. And this has been Federal Fallout and I’ll join you next time.
