Hello everyone, welcome to my weekly audio journal.
Today I'd like to share a post by Alex Brogan, the inside outside view. We have a natural tendency to favor the inside view. Our own independent solutions to a problem that incorporates all of our hidden biases.
To make better decisions, we should favor the outside view. One that incorporates the best available data.
An inside view considers as a problem by focusing on the specific task and by using information that is close at hand and it makes predictions based on that narrow and unique set of inputs. These inputs may include anecdotal evidence and fallacious perceptions. This is the approach that most people use in building models of the future and is indeed common for all forms of planning.
The outside view asks if there are similar situations that can provide a statistical basis for making a decision. Rather than seeing a problem as unique. The outside view wants to know if others have faced comparable problems and if so, what happened? The outside view is an unnatural way to think. Precisely because it forces people to set aside all the cherished information they have captured.
Thank you everyone for listening.
