This post contains my conversation with military historian Phillips O’Brien about the U.S. strikes on Iran. Phillips walked us through what air power can and can’t do — it can devastate a regime, but it can’t replace one, and what we’ve likely unleashed is a chaotic internal struggle with no clear plan for what comes next.
The deeper question is why this is really happening. The answer, we agreed, has less to do with Iran than with Trump’s domestic troubles, his financial entanglements with the Gulf states who stand to benefit most, and his eye on the 2026 midterms. Whatever happens on the ground in Iran, we shouldn’t let the fog of war stop us from asking those questions clearly.
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