Last week brought one of those quietly important election nights that doesn’t change who controls Congress, but does change how we read the map.
In this week’s episode of A Couple Thinks, we dig into the Tennessee Congressional District 7 special election and why we’re calling it “when a loss is a win.”
👉 Listen to this week’s episode!
When a 21-point loss becomes a 9-point “win”
In the 2024 election, the Republican in Tennessee’s 7th District won by 21 points.
This time? The Republican still won, but the margin was cut to just 9 points.
On paper, it’s still a loss. But in a heavily gerrymandered district where Nashville voters have been sliced and diced to dilute their power, narrowing the gap that much is a big deal.
That 12-point swing translates into:
* National attention and new money flowing into these types of races
* Volunteers sharpening their “postcard muscles” and canvassing chops
* Republicans getting just nervous enough to alter their behavior—both on the campaign trail and hopefully, even in how they govern as Trump’s power declines.
As budget deadlines loom, health insurance costs spike, and primaries creep closer, even “safe” Republicans may start behaving a little differently if they feel the ground shifting under their feet.
Special elections as smoke signals
We also take a look back at 2017, the year after Trump’s first election to see if there are patterns from that round. There were six House special elections that year. Every one of them was held by the party that already had the seat, but the margins tightened in ways that foreshadowed the 2018 blue wave, when Democrats gained 40 seats and ended up with a 235–199 majority.
The pattern feels familiar:
* Weird off-year specials
* “Safe” seats that suddenly don’t look quite as safe
* Margins shrinking in ways that don’t make headlines but absolutely shape strategy
Gerrymanders, independents, and the post-Trump era
We also talk about how gerrymandering can backfire.
Every time a map is redrawn to cram more voters of one party into a “super safe” district, it necessarily weakens another district somewhere else. There’s some evidence that in places like Texas, Republicans may have overreached—moving voters around in ways that actually create new pickup opportunities, especially as some Latino and independent voters drift away from Trump.
At the same time:
* More Americans now identify as independents than as Democrats or Republicans.
* Trump’s second term has turned dissatisfaction into something closer to a revolt for many voters—over his policies, his cabinet choices, and his disregard for the Constitution.
* Candidates in both parties now have more space to say what they’re for, not just whether they’re “for” or “against” Trump.
We talk about Zohran Mamdani’s win in New York City as a good example of a candidate running clearly for a set of policies: affordability, free buses, and more, while acknowledging that what plays in Queens won’t necessarily work in rural Tennessee. But the template of “I am for…” is portable.
Primaries and staying in our lane
We also spend time on primaries and strategy. Short version of my advice:
* In closed or semi-closed primaries, let the local electorate choose the candidate who fits their district. They know their own political terrain and what can actually win there.
Meanwhile, here in California, our gubernatorial race is already crowded—multiple Democrats with statewide or congressional experience, plus Republicans looking to take advantage of a split field. We don’t have a clear “anointed one,” and there’s some nervousness about votes fracturing. But I’m cautiously optimistic there will be some pragmatic coalescing before we hit the top-two cutoff.
So… what can we do this week?
We always try to bring it back to concrete actions. For this week, we suggest:
* Check out Swing Left’s new Ground Truth initiative.They’re launching a program on Tuesday, December 9th(!) focused on early, deep canvassing—knocking on doors, talking to voters now, and feeding that intel back to candidates after the primaries so they’re not flying blind.
* Shop small and local during the holidays.Every dollar you spend at a local business strengthens the community ecosystem we’ll rely on in the years ahead.
* Call your senators.If you share our frustration with Chuck Schumer’s leadership as Senate minority leader, you can let your senators know it’s time for a change.
And as always, we’d love to hear from you:📧 hello@acouplethinks.com📝 Survey: survey.acouplethinks.com
Joyful moments: Napa, Rotary, and “the podcast people”
We close the episode, as we always do, with our joyful moments—because staying in the fight means making space for joy.
This week’s joys included:
* A low-key Thanksgiving weekend trip to Napa with our now-adult kids—Boone Fly Café, wandering downtown, and remembering that being together is its own kind of abundance.
* Aaron’s Rotary Club holiday party, where someone introduced us as “the podcast people” (we’ll take it!) and where Aaron brought the house down singing Blue Christmas.
* The slightly surreal feeling of approaching Episode 50—a mix of pride, gratitude, and “oh wow, now we have to do something special, don’t we?”
If you need a little political context, a little strategy, and a little joy, this one’s for you.
👉 Hit play on “When a Loss Is a Win” wherever you listen to podcasts!
And if it resonates, forward this post to a friend who’s trying to stay engaged and sane in Trump Two.
