This week the team speeds through Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, natural gas, and oil) before revisiting last year’s “10-ish surprises” and what they signal for 2026 across energy, tech, and healthcare.
[00:20] Disclaimer This conversation is for informational purposes only—do your own work before making any investment decision.
[00:39] Exhibit C: Oil & the “shadow fleet” Brent rebounds as the U.S. boards a shadow-fleet tanker; the crew discusses how stepped-up enforcement could tighten sanctioned supply and push oil back toward the $70s.
[03:48] Exhibit B: Natural gas & LNG economics Cold weather supports near-term gas, but the bigger focus is potential LNG oversupply and the all-in cost math of shipping U.S. gas to Europe and Asia (JKM).
[06:00] Exhibit A: Deficits, rates, and healthcare costs They argue future deficit progress likely requires expense discipline—especially Medicare/Medicaid—while debating how Fed cuts may (or may not) translate into a lower 10-year Treasury.
[07:46] “10-ish Surprises” framework for 2025 A Byron Wien–style review: what surprised in 2025, what didn’t happen, and next week we will roll out our list for 2026
[08:39] Energy surprises: Saudi strategy & LNG permits Saudi Arabia appears more willing to defend market share in a weak market, while U.S. policy shifts reignite momentum for LNG project approvals.
[09:49] Fusion timeline watch The group revisits the “private fusion ignition” idea and why milestones like Commonwealth Fusion’s 2027 target keep the theme alive.
[10:32] Tech surprises: Apple/Google, Tesla, and AV policy They cover the iPhone-to-Android “miss,” antitrust pressure on Google’s default search deal with Apple, Tesla’s growing in-car voice controls, and the continued patchwork of autonomous-vehicle regulation.
[12:44] AI adoption: hype vs. enterprise reality Demand is booming, but real business use cases still lag—Mike frames 2026 as a potential “early CRM” moment where pilots finally become production workflows.
[14:54] Creators and GenAI Influencers aren’t “replaced,” but AI-assisted and AI-native content is accelerating—especially short-form, multi-clip storytelling formats.
[16:19] Healthcare surprises: AI in drug development They debate what qualifies as an “AI-designed” drug and highlight the FDA’s move toward more in-silico modeling and reduced reliance on animal testing.
[18:46] Food policy: corn syrup and incremental change RFK-era efforts show traction on certain additives, but banning corn syrup remains a tougher political/economic lift.
[19:37] Macro surprises: spending, auctions, and geopolitics They revisit the “$500B improvement” (more revenue than lower spending), note that crisis scenarios didn’t materialize, and discuss rolling forward China–Taiwan—plus the “one-person unicorn” concept.
[23:19] Next week preview More 2026 surprises incoming—shadow-fleet enforcement, quantum computing, and a tighter rule: cap the list at 20.
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