A rapid-fire “surprises for 2026” episode—contrarian macro + energy calls, then quick year-end check-ins for tech and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:20] Disclaimer Informational only, not investment advice.[00:30] Macro & Energy Surprises Framework “Five-and-a-half surprises” for 2026: plausible outcomes that run against consensus.[01:24] Surprise: Debt-to-GNP Falls A scenario where the deficit narrows enough that debt held by the public declines (as % of GNP) by ~1 point.[02:40] Surprise: NRC Issues 2 Reactor Construction Permits A call that the nuclear regulator approves two new builds—potentially one traditional large reactor and one SMR.[04:39] Surprise: Private Fusion Hits Ignition A major fusion milestone happens outside a national lab—important progress, even if commercialization is still distant.[05:57] Reality Check: Nuclear Economics Debate on who eats overruns and how cost-of-capital + rate structures can cap nuclear’s rollout.[08:43] Surprise: Gas Supply Stays Strong Pushback on “associated gas is rolling over” narratives; the case that supply holds up into 2026.[10:05] Surprise: $5 Natural Gas A demand-driven bull case (LNG + data centers) that lifts marginal costs and resets the price band higher.[11:49] Surprise: China Oil Demand Re-Accelerates The team argues China could return to demand growth, challenging “peak demand” assumptions.[12:34] Next Two Weeks Preview Same “surprises” format continues—next week tech, following week healthcare.[12:54] Exhibit C: Oil Quick scan of oil + geopolitics; acknowledge headline risk without anchoring forecasts to low-probability events.[13:25] Exhibit B: Natural Gas Check the strips and structure (e.g., backwardation/contango) and what it implies for pricing.[13:51] Exhibit A: US Government Finances A fast read on fiscal dynamics and the political incentives shaping spending/subsidies.[17:31] Tech Updates Year-end thoughts on major semis/software—Nvidia + Groq talk, plus Amazon’s Graviton and CPU economics.[21:09] Healthcare Updates Preview themes: opioids, depression treatments, and drug pricing—plus how subsidies/incentives affect utilization and costs.[27:52] Wrap-Up Closing thoughts and a reminder: next week is tech surprises, then healthcare surprises—subscribe so you don’t miss them.
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