SHOWNOTES
In this episode, we connect cash-flow mechanics to headlines across energy, technology, and healthcare. We cover the oil/gas setup, a pragmatic tour through Bitcoin’s history, AI chip supply chains, and a potential reset in U.S. drug pricing.
[00:00] Intro (p.1)
Welcome to Telltales with Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence. Download the weekly Cash Flow Memo to follow along with updated exhibits and company pages.
[00:00] Disclaimer - Informational only—do your own work. No investment advice is offered or implied.
[00:00:30] Exhibit C – Oil
Fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest producers buoyed prices but the impulse is fading. With macro uncertainty and geopolitics in flux, the base case leans toward ~$60 oil, acknowledging wide error bars. Near-term, lower prices would pressure non-OPEC supply growth and could reset upstream equity entry points.
[00:01:30] Exhibit B – Natural Gas & Power
’26 strip nudged above $4 while the curve stays in modest backwardation. LNG volumes improve into ’25/’26, but U.S. power burn underperformed as higher gas prices pushed coal units harder. View: gas likely anchors closer to ~$4 than $3.50; for E&Ps, hold core positions and be patient adding on potential price-driven equity softness.
[00:04:22] Exhibit A – U.S. Fiscal Picture (Exhibit A)
Deficit could improve into 2026 on tariff receipts, spending restraint, and somewhat lower interest expense. Social Security ($1.65T est.) and Medicare ($1.20T est.) dwarf most line items while interest rivals defense. Goalpost: nudge Debt-to-GDP from ~102% toward the high-90s by 2027-28—directionality matters even if we don’t get back to pre-COVID levels.
[00:07:23] Page 7 – Payments & Protocols: Visa/Mastercard
Visa (~$21B FCF on $38B revs) and Mastercard ($15B on ~$30B) convert revenue to free cash at elite rates, long valued ~30× FCF (~3% yield). Litigation remains an overhang, but the duo exemplifies “cash flow over narratives.” Sets up a segue: can blockchains truly threaten these rails?
[00:09:26] Blockchain History, Part 1 – Bitcoin
From DigiCash and the cypherpunk movement to Satoshi’s 2008 whitepaper, Bitcoin launched in 2009 as peer-to-peer electronic cash. Milestones: the Genesis “bank bailout” headline, 10,000-BTC pizza (2010), Silk Road adoption, Coinbase founded (2012), merchant uptake (2013–15), Bitcoin Cash hard fork (2017), and U.S. spot ETF debut (2024). Today, BTC functions more as a store of value than a retail payments rail—by design or by emergent use.
[00:17:53] Oakcliff Sailing
[00:20:42] Page 1 – Big Tech Roundup (AAPL/AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/TSLA) (p.1)
Microsoft’s OpenAI stake is now set at ~27%, raising the question of future 10-Q disclosure detail. iPhone 17’s refresh catalyzes delayed upgrades; the software lift helps, but Apple’s services/software runway remains the bigger debate. Tesla beat on revenue but missed on profitability; strong cash flow, grid-scale batteries, and a Robo-Taxi/CyberCab ramp (including a rumored steering-wheel variant) dominated the call. OpenAI’s benefit corporation points $25B toward health—expect diagnostics and drug discovery to be early targets.
[00:24:23] Page 3 – AI Chips & Foundry (NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML)
Geopolitics and export policy swirl around Nvidia’s China exposure; strategically, keeping China on the Nvidia software stack reduces tech bifurcation risk. Nvidia’s Blackwell sales + bookings have surpassed ~$0.5T, but TSMC remains the bottleneck. TSMC reported ~39% profit growth and flagged AI wafer demand with a mid-40s CAGR; initial U.S. output (AZ) still requires advanced packaging in Taiwan—globalized, but incrementally reshored.
[00:27:48] Healthcare News
Express Scripts (Cigna’s PBM) plans to end the rebate model in 2028, moving to cost-plus pharmacy reimbursement with estimates of ~30% savings on branded drugs. This tacitly acknowledges PBM incentives have contributed to higher list prices; a shift could stabilize independent pharmacies and improve transparency.
[00:28:45] What’s Next
Next week: more blockchain—stablecoins, bank adoption, and collateral/security models. The week after: TSMC and venture-led attempts to challenge advanced chipmaking paradigms.
This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.
