SHOWNOTES
This week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt break down the big moving pieces across energy, technology, and healthcare—anchored by the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three macro exhibits. The centerpiece: Alphabet’s “comeback,” what really changed inside Google, and where AI may go next.
[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo
[00:20] Disclaimer
[00:31] Exhibit C: Oil and geopolitics
Hunt frames oil’s near-term setup through the lens of Russia/Ukraine developments and what that could mean for crude pricing.
[00:46] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—weather boost, but supply risk
Natural gas catches a bid with supportive weather, but Hunt flags higher dry gas production and questions around LNG economics and potential oversupply.
[02:34] Exhibit A: US government finances + debt trajectory
A deficit-and-debt reality check, including the politics around extending subsidies and the broader challenge of stabilizing debt as a share of GDP.
[06:27] WSJ watch: extraditions and the Mexico angle
Mike flags a Wall Street Journal piece on extradited Mexican drug lords and why it stood out for him.
[06:59] Don’t call it a comeback: Alphabet/Google and AI
The group unpacks why Google “came back” in AI: not sudden discovery, but finally shipping—plus the internal tension of protecting the search cash machine while deploying chat-first products.
[17:51] Memo Page 1: Alphabet vs mega-cap peers + antitrust context
Hunt highlights just how massive Alphabet’s revenue/cash flow footprint is relative to Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft—and how AI shifts the framing around search and “monopoly” narratives.
[21:17] Healthcare news: switching gears
After tech dominates the first half, the team pivots to healthcare catalysts and policy considerations.
[21:28] Vertex: Morgan Stanley upgrade and kidney disease opportunity
Jason summarizes the upgrade thesis and how risk-adjusted revenue expectations could build meaningfully into the 2030s.
[22:00] Harrow: Vevye becomes Tier 1 on CVS formulary
A tangible commercial catalyst: Tier 1 status can shift volume, lower copays, and potentially improve realized pricing dynamics.
[22:55] 340B program changes: incentives, spreads, and reform attempts
Jason explains how 340B evolved from safety-net intent into a profit engine for many hospitals—and what pending changes may do (and not do) to fix the system.
[24:52] ACA tax credit deal: extend now, reform next
A practical debate: don’t create a coverage cliff, but use the urgency to push transparency, catastrophic-coverage thinking, and patient incentives.
[28:58] Next week preview
A tease for what’s coming—potentially a focused segment on key risks facing NVIDIA, with more healthcare deep-dives promised soon.
Thanks for listening—download the Cash Flow Memo to follow along with the numbers, and subscribe so you don’t miss next week’s breakdown.
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