SHOWNOTES
This episode tackles the week’s cash-flow movers across energy, tech, and healthcare—then time-travels through biopharma’s biggest breakthroughs. We close with practical EV takes, Big Tech updates, and why Mars might be more interesting than the headlines suggest.
[00:00] Intro
[00:30] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand
IEA’s latest revision lifts 2025 demand growth to ~0.7–0.8 mb/d (vs. ~0.4–0.5), implying the surplus could tighten from ~3.3 mb/d toward ~2.0—mostly in Saudi spare capacity (10.1 mb/d run-rate vs. ~12 mb/d capability). Futures sit near ~$62 as macro/geopolitical risk (Russia distillates, Iran supply) caps downside but keeps the curve flat in the low-60s.
[03:34] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/Supply
Production hovered near ~106 while power burn stayed frustratingly flat (~37.8→38.5). Spot printed $3.04 last Thursday, with a contangoed strip around ~$3.83–$3.90 for 2026—disappointing versus the old ~$4 anchor given modest data-center uplift to date.
[04:38] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances & Rates
Congress passed a CR to Nov 20; Democrats seek Medicaid restorations, making a shutdown plausible. The Fed delivered a quarter-point cut—arriving “too late” in Hunt’s view—after holding steady post last fall’s 50 bps move; politics around timing get a candid airing.
[06:50] Biopharma History: From Penicillin to mRNA
Alexander Fleming’s accidental penicillin find (1928/29) led to wartime scale-up (Pfizer’s deep-tank fermentation; doses >2M by 1943) and a “Golden Age of Antibiotics” (streptomycin for TB, tetracycline). Genentech’s 1980s recombinant insulin marks the modern biotech inflection; BioNTech’s mRNA pivot shows how far we’ve come—even as viruses and antibiotic resistance remain unsolved frontiers.
[17:16] Oakcliff Sailing
Community update and Annapolis Boat Show plans; proceeds benefit programs via racingcalendar.org.
[19:29] Page 1: Mega-Cap Check-In
Quick scan of the “Page 1” five. Tesla highlights include Musk buying ~$1B of shares and Nevada approval to test robotaxis; Amazon FC tour preview tees up automation talk; Microsoft’s OpenAI arrangements continue to solidify.
[19:44] Apple: Translation AirPods & the AR Path (p. 1)
AirPods Pro 3 impress—live in-ear translation hints at Apple’s real-world AR strategy while iPhone “Air” appeals to China’s thin-phone fad and preps a foldable future. New “liquid glass” UI lands better in hand than on stage; the market’s “not enough AI” reaction misses the iteration-to-platform arc.
[21:51] Microsoft & OpenAI: Deal Momentum (p. 1)
No big surprises—just steady progress that reinforces Azure’s AI gravity and inference economics, with edge vs. cloud tradeoffs a watch-item.
[22:28] Oracle: Building AI ‘Factories’ (p. 2)
Larry Ellison leans into capacity for inference—Oracle wants to be a go-to “AI factory” supplier. Jason flags an overbuild risk if inference migrates to edge devices, but legacy database strengths gain new relevance in the AI era.
[25:10] Page 3: NVIDIA & China Strategy
China signals intent to reduce NVIDIA reliance while simultaneously pressing a prior remedy about uninterrupted supply—talk vs. action tension. Bottom line: NVDA’s constraint is still TSMC wafer output; global demand ex-China remains plenty.
[27:26] Life on Mars?
NASA reports organic carbon and iron compounds consistent with microbial biosignatures; alternative non-biologic origins remain unconvincing. Sample-return logistics could unlock definitive answers—surprising this didn’t dominate the news cycle.
[29:09] Tesla Model Y Door Safety (p. 1)
Emergency latches exist but aren’t intuitive, especially rear seats; several accidents spotlight the issue. Expect regulatory pressure for a clearly mechanical primary interior release.
[30:16] Used EVs: Who Should Buy What? (p. 1)
Charging at home is the gating factor; in California it’s often a no-brainer. For used, Tesla’s deeper field data and software stack make it the safer pick; typical battery life guidance ~150k miles, with many vehicles exceeding that—non-Tesla software still lags.
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