SHOWNOTES
A brisk, cash-flow-first tour through energy, technology, and healthcare: oil and gas realities, the federal balance sheet, big labor revisions, and the AI build-out—plus biotech’s backstory and fresh FDA/advertising policy moves.
[00:00] Intro (n/a)
[00:19] Disclaimer
Reminder that the episode is informational only and not investment advice. Listeners should do their own work and assume no guarantee of completeness or accuracy.
[00:30] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand
Oil pricing “stuck” near the low-60s amid geopolitical tensions and weak macro catalysts. Spare capacity is drifting lower mainly from decline curves and reduced capex; U.S. activity (rigs/completions) is down, with 2025 U.S. output guided lower and 2026 ~12.7–12.8 mb/d. New projects look unlikely at current prices, keeping a floor under crude absent major macro breaks.
[04:22] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/Supply
Despite questions about recovery to $70s oil, weaker demand growth—especially in China and Asia—tempers the upside. The team doesn’t see a $50 handle as likely given supply dynamics and geopolitical backdrop, but also isn’t banking on a quick return to higher prices.
[05:06] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Cash Flow
Targeting progress rather than perfection: discussion of trimming the deficit toward ~$1–1.5T over the next couple years versus COVID-era blowouts. Debt-to-GDP math: if deficits stabilize, the ratio can flatten near ~102% before drifting down. Expect noise as Congress wrestles with funding via continuing resolutions to avoid shutdown-style disruptions.
[07:55] Jobs Revision: The Labor Data Reality Check
Roughly ~1M jobs revised away (~76k/month on average), implying two negative months and several weak ones last year. Vanguard’s vantage via 401(k) enrollments/contribution trends hinted at a softer market earlier; poor inputs complicate Fed timing and reinforce criticism that policy cuts ran “too late.”
[10:14] Biopharma History (10-Minute Sprint)
From ancient fermentation and early antibiotic uses to Pasteur’s germ theory, vaccination experiments, and Mendel’s genetics—laying the groundwork for modern biopharma. Clarifies “biotech” vs “pharma” and notes this series will span multiple episodes.
[17:25] Page 1: Tesla’s $1T Pay Package (p. 1)
Long-dated, “outlandish-but-plannable” milestones: $8T valuation, robotaxis, humanoid robots. Hosts lean over 50/50 on operational targets over a 10-year window; valuation ultimately rests with markets. Governance sidenote: Delaware ruling, Texas reincorporation, and how a prior plan could affect today’s package.
[21:27] Page 2: Software—CRM / NOW / SNOW / ORCL / AVGO (p. 2)
Oracle pops ~30% on AI-related backlog/commentary (notably OpenAI). Debate: Can capital markets really fund another ~$100B for OpenAI? One view: software innovation may pivot, forcing a spending rethink; another: token demand far exceeds supply (HBM bottlenecks, NVIDIA shipping everything, hyperscalers/“neo-clouds” deals), so pricing power and demand migration across providers (MSFT/Gemini/etc.) sustain the buildout.
[26:03] Sponsor Break: Oakcliff Sailing
Quick update from the water: race results, training, and a fall foiling series—follow along on social feeds.
[27:44] Healthcare News Roundup
Executive order seeks to curb pharma ads by reverting to pre-1997-style disclosure—potential hit to legacy media and to DTC channels that bypass PBMs. Policy fragmentation on vaccines at state levels draws criticism. FDA moves to accept single-arm studies for ultra-rare diseases (<1,000 patients) to cut costs/time, and plans transparency by publishing complete response letters.
[31:00] Sign-Off
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