This week the Telltales crew unpacks shifting energy fundamentals, tough healthcare headlines, the rise of Web 1.0—and whether Tesla’s robo-taxi dream justifies a half-trillion price tag.
[00:00] Intro
Mike welcomes listeners, frames the show’s cash-flow focus across energy, tech, and healthcare, and reminds everyone to grab the accompanying memo.
[00:47] Exhibit C – World Oil Supply & Demand
Hunt revisits OPEC+ production moves, Saudi-U.S. coordination, and secondary sanctions aimed at Russia. He argues excess supply could keep WTI/Brent in the $50s before tightening 18–24 months out.
[03:55] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook
Gas futures slip as shoulder-season demand meets rising output (~108 Bcf/d). Despite near-term weakness, Hunt still sees 2024–25 averaging ~$4/MMBtu if production stabilizes.
[05:05] Exhibit A – U.S. Fiscal Picture
With Congress on recess and spending bills stalled, Hunt warns that continuing-resolution drama could spook capital markets. Political gridlock plus Epstein-file intrigue add to the uncertainty.
[07:59] Technology & Healthcare Agenda
The hosts outline three focus areas—healthcare, software history, Tesla—and promise a deeper Tesla dive later in the episode.
[08:19] Healthcare Earnings & Policy (pp. 15)
Jason highlights FDA leadership changes, a 250 % pharma tariff, and halted mRNA research grants. Vertex’s pain-drug miss and Lantheus’s pricing pressure contrast with fortress balance sheets and fresh buybacks, sparking a value-vs-value-trap debate.
[15:56] Software History Part 4 – Network Effects & Web 1.0
From Microsoft Office lock-in to AOL’s ubiquitous CDs, Jason tracks the 1990s standards (HTTP, SSL, JavaScript) that enabled Internet scale—and set the stage for Amazon, eBay, PayPal, Yahoo, and Google.
[20:40] Oakcliff Sailing Update
A quick on-the-water report from Oakcliff International match-racing, with shout-outs to volunteers and rising teams.
[22:18] Tesla Sum-of-Parts & Robo-Taxi Debate (p. 1)
Hunt admires Tesla’s debt-light, cash-rich balance sheet but questions its $1 T valuation on just $5 B free cash flow. The trio models a $500-600 B option on robo-taxis and humanoid robots, comparing cost-per-mile economics to Uber and DoorDash, and muse on venture-style fleet financing.
[32:30] Wrap-Up & Next Week Teaser
Running long on enthusiasm, the hosts promise more on Tesla, Uber, and healthcare in the next episode—and sign off with the usual disclaimer.
Catch the full memo at telltales.us and join us next week for deeper dives into markets that move your portfolio.
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