This episode blends near-term energy realities with a tour through Oracle’s history and its AI pivot—then zooms out to policy, trade, and the cash-flow engines dominating tech and payments.
[00:00] Intro
[00:00:20] Disclaimer
[00:00:44] Exhibit C: Oil outlook
Hunt notes Middle East détente reduces risk premia but isn’t bullish for prices near-term. With Saudi likely to defend share, oil feels “subdued”; if you own quality E&Ps, hold, but wait to add until/if crude dips into the $50s.
[00:03:22] Exhibit B: Natural gas oversupply
Summer heat underwhelmed and gas-fired power is flat YoY despite AI/data-center narratives; LNG strength offsets only so much. Hunt sees 2025 gas averaging ~$3.60 (vs. ~$2.40 in 2024), with Permian associated gas keeping supply sturdy and storage entering winter “full.”
[00:05:19] Exhibit A: U.S. finances
CBO puts the FY25 deficit near $1.8T vs. the memo’s $1.9T placeholder, with 2026 likely lower (potentially by ~$400B). Policy brinkmanship (continuing resolution fights) hasn’t hit markets yet—but it bears watching.
[00:06:40] U.S.–China trade tension returns (Exhibit A)
China’s Commerce Ministry tightens export license rules on critical minerals; U.S. rhetoric hardens (tariff talk). Hunt flags a tail-risk: deeper economic decoupling (chips/planes/soybeans), which capital markets might be under-pricing.
[00:10:07] Oracle: the origin story (p. 2)
Jason traces Oracle to Ellison/Miner/Oates, CIA contracts, and IBM’s relational DB research (System R) inspiring SQL’s commercialization. Early funding was tiny (~$2k + $50k contract), growth leaned on debt, and a ’90s sales-practice scare nearly sank the firm before it emerged stronger.
[00:17:19] Cloud stumble to AI inflection (p. 2)
Oracle lagged early cloud pricing models (per-core vs. elastic compute) but is now resurgent as AI lifts demand. A marquee OpenAI deal reportedly swelled backlog from ~$80B to >$400B, positioning OCI and Oracle DB squarely in AI training/serving stacks.
[00:19:41] Do LLMs change databases? (p. 2)
Jason frames LLMs as “compression” layers over enterprise data; long-run, natural-language querying could obviate parts of SQL workflows. Oracle’s bet: be the infra and data platform where that future gets built.
[00:20:33] Next week: Broadcom
Teaser for another “history of” segment; TSMC likely to follow soon after.
[00:20:49] Healthcare: California reins in PBMs
New law curbs steering to affiliated pharmacies, mandates rebate pass-through to patients, and blocks exclusivity with drugmakers. The team sees momentum toward cleaner economics for consumers.
[00:21:40] TrumpRx + AstraZeneca; DTC momentum
AstraZeneca joins TrumpRx, and ~90% of pharma execs are evaluating direct-to-consumer fulfillment—potentially disintermediating PBMs over time.
[00:22:18] Page 1 check-in: AAPL/AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/TSLA (p. 1)
A quiet headline week overall. Notables: Apple succession chatter (post-Jeff Williams); Amazon’s “AgentCore” to standardize AI agent development on AWS; Microsoft secures hundreds of thousands of GPUs via a European “Neo Cloud” partner model—shifting CapEx optics while locking in capacity.
[00:24:35] CapEx optics, Nvidia’s dominance, TSMC’s role (pp. 1–3)
True AI CapEx outstrips reported figures when you include off-balance-sheet partner commitments. Nvidia’s equity value ($4.5T) towers over megacaps, but none of this runs without TSMC ($1.5T; ~$30B CapEx).
[00:27:06] TSMC: 2nm pricing & growth (p. 3)
2nm wafer pricing rises a measured ~10–20% (vs. 50% feared), preserving customer loyalty. Monthly prints show ~35% YoY revenue growth—evidence of unrelenting AI/foundry demand.
[00:27:48] Payments compounding: Visa/Mastercard (+PayPal) (p. 7)
Cash-flow engines: Visa ($38B rev / $21B FCF) and Mastercard ($30B / $15B FCF) keep compounding double-digit top and FCF lines—rivaled only by Nvidia’s margins at hyperscale.
[00:28:44] Blockchain as a threat to networks? (p. 7)
Jason sees limited displacement risk today; real-world rails still require dispute resolution (e.g., Coinbase adding rollback)—a philosophical break from immutable chains and a practical nod to traditional payment protections.
[00:30:28] Wrap
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