This week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt continue their “surprise” predictions for 2026. This week, focusing on tech related surprises. Then they shift into the memo’s exhibits on oil, natural gas, and U.S. government finances. They close with timely healthcare updates and a rapid-fire run through major news on pages 1–4.
[00:00] Welcome to Telltales Mike introduces the Cash Flow Memo and previews a fast tour through energy, technology, and healthcare.
[00:00] Disclaimer A quick reminder: this conversation is informational only and not investment advice.
[00:30] 5 Tech Surprises for ’26 The team frames the segment as “surprises” that run against conventional wisdom, setting up five big tech calls.
[01:41] #1 Stablecoins surpass SWIFT (monthly volume) Why stablecoins could become a dominant rail for cross-border dollar flows, and what regulation changes might mean.
[04:09] #2 Tesla robotaxi rides beat Waymo (weekly) The case for a faster network rollout, plus skepticism around why autonomy scaling has been slower than expected.
[06:17] #3 First quantum break of a crypto wallet A prediction that a dormant, high-value wallet gets cracked via brute-force quantum capability, distinct from “traditional” hacks.
[08:04] #4 xAI leads foundation models by end of ’26 A debate on whether hardware scale and speed to deploy new systems could shift leadership in frontier AI models.
[10:43] #5 Federal AI legislation passes The group discusses incentives for a single national framework versus a patchwork of state rules.
[11:26] Macro surprise: Republicans hold the House A quick political curveball and how it could influence the policy backdrop for tech, crypto, and AI.
[12:04] Sponsor break: Oakcliff Sailing A brief interlude on hands-on composite repair training and high-performance sailing programs.
[13:13] Exhibit C: Oil and Venezuela Hunt breaks down why Venezuela’s “reserves” story is complicated, what heavy oil economics imply, and why Chevron flows matter for prices.
[16:56] Exhibit B: Natural Gas and the Permian Warmer weather, weak Waha pricing, rising associated gas, and LNG liftings all collide in the 2026 setup.
[18:53] Exhibit A: U.S. finances and the deficit path Why they think the deficit can keep shrinking with growth + inflation, and what to watch around potential shutdown headlines.
[21:50] Healthcare news JPMorgan Healthcare Conference expectations, Novo Nordisk’s pill-form weight-loss move, Eli Lilly’s competitive dynamics, and why MRD testing could reshape trial design and treatment timing.
[24:38] Pages 1–4: Tech and market news round-up Netflix and Warner deal chatter, antitrust workarounds, Nvidia’s next-gen platform economics, xAI fundraising, JPM’s “Proxy IQ,” ASML talent leakage concerns, and what it means to onshore leading-edge chips.
[35:06] Next week The team tees up “healthcare surprises” for the next episode and signs off.
If you found this useful, grab the latest Cash Flow Memo and follow along with Exhibits A–C as you listen. Subscribe for next week’s healthcare surprise episode and drop a comment with your boldest 2026 prediction.
This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.
