The Cashflow Memo
Q1 prints divide — Intel’s best day since 1987, Charter’s worst
Tesla, ServiceNow, Apple, Intel, Charter, UnitedHealth, Kinder Morgan all printed. Five megacaps and Regeneron up next week.
The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 86 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler.
Download the memo at telltales.us. Mike, Jason, and Hunt are back Wednesday on episode 2618.
Chapter markers
* Time | Segment
* 0:00 | Opening disclaimer
* 0:15 | Cold open
* 0:45 | Theme — Q1 prints divide (TSLA, NOW, AAPL)
* 4:45 | Deep dive — INTC + CHTR
* 8:45 | Rapid-fire (UNH, KMI, AMZN, MSFT)
* 11:45 | Close
* 12:30 | Closing disclaimer
Full transcript
Opening disclaimer
Ava: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.
Cold open
Ava: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.
Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham, the analyst on the show. Every beat you hear from me is anchored in a number from the Cash Flow Memo. If the multiple doesn’t make sense against the cash the company actually generates, I’ll say so.
Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. We’re still in the pilot window, so feedback is welcome through the Substack at telltales.us.
Ava: This was the heaviest single earnings week of the cycle for the Cash Flow Memo universe. Tesla, ServiceNow, Intel, Charter, UnitedHealth, and Kinder Morgan all reported. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Regeneron all report next week. On Wednesday’s episode 2617, Mike, Jason, and Hunt opened on Tim Cook stepping down at Apple and pressed the question of whether a hardware-led AI bet was Apple’s edge or its Intel-style blind spot.[^ep-e2617] By Friday afternoon, the cautionary tale was out-printing the cautionary subject. Intel had its best single session since 1987. We get there. The theme first.
Theme — Q1 prints divide
Ava: This was the first week the market told you what kind of Q1 print it was going to reward. The answer: very few of them. Three names on page 1 and page 2 of the memo printed this week. Two beat. One beat and got punished. All three are stories the market spent the week re-pricing.
Ava: Tesla, page 1 of the memo, after the close Tuesday. Revenue $22.39B, a slight beat against consensus.[^news-tsla-q1-print-20260422] Q1 deliveries 358,023 units, missing consensus by about 7,600.[^news-tsla-q1-deliveries-20260422] Auto gross margin excluding credits 19.2%, the highest of any quarter in 2025.[^news-tsla-q1-margin-20260422] On the call, Musk pushed unsupervised consumer Full Self-Driving to Q4 of this year at the earliest[^news-tsla-fsd-delay-20260422] and announced full-year capex would rise to $25B from prior guidance of $20B.[^news-tsla-capex-20260422] Marcus, the cashflow read.
Marcus: Tesla generated $1.4B of free cash flow in Q1, sequentially.[^news-tsla-capex-20260422] On the memo, the trailing-twelve-months free cash flow yield is still negative — -0.3%.[^memo-tsla-fcfyield-20260424] So the print resolves a little of the cash question and re-opens it at the same time. $25B of capex against an Optimus factory build and a Cybercab line that’s already started production[^news-tsla-optimus-20260422][^news-tsla-cybercab-production-20260423] is what $1.4B of quarterly cash buys you. And note the working-capital signal: Tesla maxed out a $5.8B Chinese bank facility this quarter while sitting on $44.7B of US cash on the balance sheet.[^news-tsla-china-debt-20260423] That’s a market-specific liquidity problem inside a balance sheet that does not need help in aggregate.
Ava: ServiceNow, page 2 of the memo, after the close Tuesday. Subscription revenue $3.67B, up 22% YoY, beating guidance.[^news-now-q1-earnings-20260422] AI revenue guidance raised to $1.5B for 2026 from $1.0B. Customers spending more than $1M in Now Assist annual contract value grew 130% YoY.[^news-now-ai-traction-20260422] Stock dropped 18%. Middle East deal slippage, a 75 bps margin headwind from the Armis acquisition, and a guide reset that pushed normalized expansion out to 2027.[^news-now-earnings-selloff-20260422] Marcus, what does the memo say.
Marcus: ServiceNow trades at 213x trailing free cash flow on the memo.[^memo-now-evfcf-20260424] At that multiple, a beat plus a guide raise on AI bookings is what’s expected. It’s not what gets you paid. What gets you paid at 213x is acceleration. The market saw deal slippage, margin compression, and a reset on the timing of the AI revenue conversion, and concluded the gap between bookings and revenue recognition is bigger than the multiple was pricing. Trailing-twelve free cash flow grew 55% YoY.[^memo-now-fcf-20260424] That’s still a beat. It’s just not a 213x beat.
Ava: Apple, also page 1. Earnings April 30, consensus $1.92 on $109.35B in revenue.[^earn-aapl] But the news this week was the succession. Tim Cook steps down September 1. John Ternus, head of hardware engineering, takes the chair.[^news-aapl-cook-ternus-20260421] iPhone shipments in China up 20% YoY in Q1, strongest growth among major vendors against an overall market that was down 4%.[^news-aapl-china-iphone-20260417] India’s Competition Commission has set a final hearing for May 21 on a $38B antitrust case Apple is contesting.[^news-aapl-india-fine-20260420] Marcus, into the print, what does the memo carry.
Marcus: Apple is on page 1 at 37x trailing free cash flow with a free cash flow yield of 2.6%.[^memo-aapl-evfcf-20260424] Trailing twelve months, Apple generated $105.6B of free cash flow, up about 18% from the prior trailing twelve.[^memo-aapl-fcf-20260424] Buyback was $91.8B over that same window.[^memo-aapl-buyback-20260424] That’s what Cook is handing Ternus. Whatever the AI strategy looks like under the new chair, the cash engine doesn’t need to be repaired. It needs to be redirected.
Deep dive — Intel and Charter
Ava: Two earnings prints sat at opposite ends of the week. Both are deep dives because each one moved its stock more than 20% — one up, one down — and each one reset the conversation around the company.
Ava: Intel, page 3 of the memo. Q1 revenue $13.6B against consensus of $12.6B, a $943M beat.[^news-intc-q1-beat-20260423] Non-GAAP earnings per share $0.29 against a $0.01 estimate.[^news-intc-eps-beat-20260424] Data Center and AI revenue up 22% YoY to $5.1B, and CEO Lip-Bu Tan called the demand for server CPUs huge on the call.[^news-intc-dcai-22pct-20260424] Q2 guide $13.8B–$14.8B, above consensus. EPS guide $0.20.[^news-intc-q2-guidance-20260423] The number behind the number — Intel announced Tuesday that Tesla had been signed as the first major customer for the 14A process node, for TeraFab AI chip production. Tan said on the call there was no better partner.[^news-intc-tesla-14a-20260422] On Friday, the stock closed up 24% at an all-time high above $82, the best single session since 1987.[^news-intc-stock-24pct-20260424] Marcus, the cashflow read.
Marcus: This is where the memo asks a different question than the tape. Intel’s trailing-twelve free cash flow is -$16.2B and the free cash flow yield is -4.8%.[^memo-intc-fcf-20260424][^memo-intc-fcfyield-20260424] The memo can’t carry an EV/FCF multiple on Intel because the denominator is negative. The Q1 print does not change that. What the print changes is the slope. Revenue beat by $943M on a base where management has been guiding flat. The Q2 guide steps revenue up another 2-3% sequentially. 18A is hitting yield milestones, and 14A just landed Tesla.[^news-intc-18a-14a-20260424] If you believe the slope, the question is when free cash flow inflects positive. If you don’t, the multiple still doesn’t exist.
Ava: One more piece of context. The US government’s 9.9% stake in Intel, acquired through CHIPS Act conversion for $8.9B, is now worth approximately $36B at Friday’s close.[^news-intc-govt-stake-20260424] Marcus, that math.
Marcus: That’s a 4x return for Treasury inside roughly a year, which is the cleanest mark to date on the CHIPS Act capital structure. It doesn’t change Intel’s free cash flow. It does change the political price of letting the company run an aggressive foundry capex plan. Washington is now long the foundry build, marked to market.
Ava: Charter Communications, page 5 of the memo, before the open Thursday. Earnings per share $9.17 against consensus of $10.01, an $0.84 miss.[^news-chtr-eps-miss-20260424] Stock fell 24%. The cleanest single-day decline in our universe this week. Inside the print: Spectrum Internet customers declined by 120,000 subscribers in Q1, against improvement in mobile and video.[^news-chtr-internet-loss-20260424] Capex guidance is the second beat. 2026 capex peaks at $11.4B before tracking down to under $8B by 2028.[^news-chtr-capex-guidance-20260424] And the Cox Communications acquisition, $34.5B and $800M in identified synergies, has cleared the FCC and DOJ but is still waiting on California CPUC approval.[^news-chtr-cox-status-20260424][^news-chtr-cox-synergies-20260424] Marcus, the memo number.
Marcus: Charter trades at 69.7x free cash flow on the memo.[^memo-chtr-evfcf-20260424] Trailing twelve months Charter generated $1.8B of free cash flow.[^memo-chtr-fcf-20260424] The free cash flow yield looks attractive at 6%.[^memo-chtr-fcfyield-20260424] But debt to free cash flow is 53x.[^memo-chtr-debtfcf-20260424] That’s the number the multiple is pricing. At 53x debt to free cash flow, you do not have permission to lose broadband subscribers in your peak capex year while the merger you’re counting on for synergies is still sitting at one state regulator. The selloff is a re-pricing of the Cox close from a near-certainty into a timing risk.
Ava: One forward question. Capex steps down by more than $3B between the 2026 peak and the 2028 run-rate. If the broadband line stops bleeding, the free cash flow profile changes meaningfully. Marcus, the read.
Marcus: $3B of capex coming out is roughly equal to all of Charter’s current trailing free cash flow. So if the broadband line stabilizes and the Cox synergies actually print, you can re-rate this name in 2027. That’s the bull case. The bear case is the same one we just watched for 24%. Peak capex, broadband bleed, and a deal in regulatory limbo, all stacked.
Rapid-fire
Ava: Four catalysts to close the show.
Ava: UnitedHealth, UNH, page 19, Monday before open. Adjusted EPS $7.23 against consensus of $6.57, a $0.66 beat.[^news-unh-q1-earnings-20260421] Medical loss ratio improved to 83.9%, 90 bps better YoY and a clean beat against the 85.5% the Street was carrying.[^news-unh-mlr-20260421] Full-year guide raised to above $18.25 per share, and management called the medical cost trend acceleration peaked.[^news-unh-guidance-20260421] Separately, UnitedHealthcare announced it will eliminate most medical prior authorization requirements at 1,500 rural hospitals nationwide and accelerate payments to under 15 days.[^news-unh-rural-auth-20260420] On the memo, UNH trades at 3.7x free cash flow at a 26% free cash flow yield.[^memo-unh-evfcf-20260424][^memo-unh-fcfyield-20260424] The print is the inflection the cost-trend bears were asking for.
Ava: Kinder Morgan, KMI, page 10, after the close Tuesday. EPS $0.48 against consensus $0.38, a 23% surprise.[^news-kmi-q1-eps-20260422] Adjusted EBITDA up 18% YoY to $2.54B.[^news-kmi-ebitda-growth-20260422] Moody’s upgraded Kinder Morgan to Baa1, putting all three rating agencies at BBB+ or equivalent.[^news-kmi-moodys-upgrade-20260422] Management projects US natural gas demand at 150 Bcf per day by 2031, a 27% step up from current levels.[^news-kmi-gas-demand-forecast-20260422] On the memo, 30x free cash flow at a 4.5% free cash flow yield.[^memo-kmi-evfcf-20260424][^memo-kmi-fcfyield-20260424] The midstream tape this week was the cleanest read on data center power demand in any sector, and KMI is pricing some of it.
Ava: Amazon, AMZN, page 1, reports after the close Wednesday. Consensus $1.61 on $177.28B in revenue.[^earn-amzn] Two prints to flag going in. Amazon set its 2026 capex budget at $200B, the highest annual capex by any company in history.[^news-amzn-capex-200b-20260424] And Amazon committed an additional $25B to Anthropic, against Anthropic’s $100B AWS commitment over the next decade.[^news-amzn-anthropic-25b-20260420] Stock closed at an all-time high of $255.28 Wednesday.[^news-amzn-ath-255-20260423] On the memo, Amazon is 63x free cash flow at a 1.6% yield.[^memo-amzn-evfcf-20260424][^memo-amzn-fcfyield-20260424] What to watch on the call: AWS revenue growth, capex commentary, and any margin response to a $200B build.
Ava: Microsoft, MSFT, page 1, also Wednesday after close. Consensus $4.07 on $81.37B.[^earn-msft] News this week — Microsoft offered first-ever voluntary retirement buyouts to approximately 8,750 US employees, 7% of the US workforce, at senior director level and below.[^news-msft-buyout-program-20260423] Stock fell 4% on the announcement.[^news-msft-stock-decline-20260423] UBS expects Azure growth around 38% on the call against a 9% consensus.[^news-msft-azure-forecast-20260424] On the memo, 97x free cash flow at a 1% yield.[^memo-msft-evfcf-20260424][^memo-msft-fcfyield-20260424] At that multiple, the buyout is the kind of cost discipline the market wanted before the AI capex print, not after.
Close
Ava: That’s the show. Roughly $5.5T of market cap reports in a 36-hour window next Wednesday and Thursday. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Regeneron. The weekend after, we’ll have read all six. Mike, Jason, and Hunt are back Wednesday on episode 2618, picking up Amazon alongside Walmart per their carryover from this week.[^ep-e2617] Download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. I’m Ava Cabot. See you next Saturday.
Closing disclaimer
Ava: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.
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