▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down →
The Tape — W2643
Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-17 → 2026-10-23. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately.
Telltales Yield — Top 10
Telltales Yield — Bottom 10
This Week’s Reporters
Sector Medians
Debt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF)
Weekly Price Movement
Top 5 (week-over-week price)
Bottom 5 (week-over-week price)
Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful)
Finance-book — FCF not comparable
Customer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild.
Data Gaps
90 of 91 ranked-eligible names ranked. 1 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable).
Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-10-23.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation.
The Issue — This Week's Brief
The Cashflow Memo
Meta and Bloom Energy’s Third Quarters, Merck and Moderna’s Melanoma Data
Meta and Bloom Energy’s third quarters, the Merck and Moderna melanoma trial results, and Salesforce’s deal for Braze
The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot reports what the companies in the Cash Flow Memo disclosed this week and what is scheduled next. About 9 minutes.
Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2644.
Chapter markers
* Time | Segment
* 0:00 | Intro: what the episode covers
* 0:35 | Theme: Meta and Bloom Energy
* 3:00 | Deep dive: Merck and Moderna
* 4:55 | Rapid-fire: Salesforce, Netflix, Comcast, the earnings calendar
* 7:30 | Close
* 7:45 | Disclaimer
Full transcript
Intro
Ava: Welcome to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.
Ava: This week, from the companies in the Cash Flow Memo: third-quarter results from Meta and Bloom Energy, the Phase 3 melanoma trial results from Merck and Moderna, Salesforce’s agreement to buy Braze, third-quarter results from Netflix and Comcast, and next week’s earnings calendar.
Ava: The show is produced entirely with AI tools, and the voice you’re hearing is AI-generated. The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.
Theme — Meta and Bloom Energy
Ava: Meta and Bloom Energy both reported their third quarters this week. Meta’s free cash flow and Bloom’s operating cash flow were both negative for the quarter[^8k-meta-q3-20261021][^8k-be-q3-20261022]. Meta first.
Ava: Meta reported on Wednesday. Per the earnings release, attached to an 8-K, revenue was about $65 billion, up 26% from a year earlier[^8k-meta-q3-20261021]. Cash from operations was about $33 billion, and capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, were about $35 billion[^8k-meta-q3-20261021].
Ava: The release puts free cash flow for the quarter at negative $2.1 billion[^8k-meta-q3-20261021]. Costs in the quarter include a $9.9 billion charge for Meta’s agreement with state attorneys general to resolve litigation over teen mental health and social media[^8k-meta-q3-20261021].
Ava: For the fourth quarter, Meta guided revenue to $73 billion to $76 billion[^8k-meta-q3-20261021]. For this year’s capital expenditures, it now expects $135 billion to $145 billion, narrowed from $130 billion to $145 billion[^8k-meta-q3-20261021]. In the outlook section of the release, Meta’s chief financial officer wrote this about next year.
Meta’s chief financial officer, Q3 2026 earnings release (quoted): Looking beyond 2026, we are still developing our budget and capacity plans for next year, but we expect to continue investing aggressively to support both our core business and emerging AI initiatives.[^8k-meta-q3-20261021]
Ava: Separately, per the 8-K, Meta’s board declared a one-time dividend of one new non-voting Class C share for each outstanding Class A and Class B share[^8k-meta-classc-20261019]. The new class takes effect January 19, 2027, and the 8-K says the dividend will be paid no later than the fifth business day after that[^8k-meta-classc-20261019]. The release says that after the dividend is paid, Meta expects the Class A share price to reflect the effect of a two-for-one stock split[^8k-meta-q3-20261021].
Ava: Meta shares fell nearly 7% on Thursday, CNBC reports[^cnbc-meta-fcf-20261022]. The Cash Flow Memo dated October 19, page 4, shows Meta’s free cash flow at negative $17 billion, a figure that predates this report[^memo-meta-20261019]. Next, Bloom Energy.
Ava: Bloom Energy reported on Thursday. Per the earnings release, attached to an 8-K, revenue was about $1.2 billion, up 138% from a year earlier[^8k-be-q3-20261022]. Bloom raised its full-year revenue guidance to $4.4 billion to $4.6 billion[^8k-be-q3-20261022].
Ava: The cash flow statement in the release shows $27 million of cash used in operating activities in the quarter, against $226 million of cash provided in the second quarter[^8k-be-q3-20261022]. Purchases of property, plant and equipment were about $150 million[^8k-be-q3-20261022].
Ava: Bloom shares fell 11% on Friday, Investopedia reports[^invest-be-drop-20261023]. Next, Merck and Moderna.
Deep dive — Merck and Moderna
Ava: Merck and Moderna, both on page 15 of the memo. On Thursday, the two companies released detailed results from INTerpath-001, the Phase 3 trial of intismeran autogene, their investigational mRNA-based individualized neoantigen therapy, given with Merck’s Keytruda after surgery in stage IIB to IV melanoma, per their joint release[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. CNBC reports the companies released the results after partial data leaked on social media earlier that day[^cnbc-mrna-results-20261023].
Ava: At the primary analysis, after a median follow-up of about 25 months, intismeran with Keytruda reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42%, against Keytruda alone, per the release[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. It reduced the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38%[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022].
Ava: The release says that in the first six months, the combination’s effect was comparable with Keytruda alone[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. From six months on, following the immunization regimen, a pre-specified sensitivity analysis showed a 58% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022].
Ava: Per the release, overall survival data are not yet mature, and the safety profile was generally consistent with earlier studies of the combination, with no new safety signals[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. The results are scheduled for presentation at the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress and have been accepted for publication in The New England Journal of Medicine[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. The companies said they are engaging with regulatory authorities[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022].
Ava: In an interview before the results, Moderna chief executive Stéphane Bancel told CNBC the company is finishing a filing with regulators as it aims to get the drug fully approved next year[^cnbc-mrna-results-20261023].
Ava: CNBC reports that Moderna shares fell as much as 25% on Thursday before regaining some ground[^cnbc-mrna-leak-20261022]. The Cash Flow Memo dated October 19 has Merck at 23 times free cash flow, and shows Moderna’s free cash flow at negative $2.8 billion, with no multiple[^memo-mrk-mrna-20261019].
Ava: Merck reports its third quarter on Thursday, October 29[^earn-mrk], and Moderna reports on Friday, November 6[^earn-mrna]. On to the rapid-fire.
Rapid-fire
Ava: Salesforce. On Tuesday, it announced a definitive agreement to acquire Braze, a customer engagement software company, for about $5.7 billion in enterprise value, per the release attached to an 8-K[^8k-crm-braze-20261020]. Braze holders would receive $47.50 a share in cash, and the deal is expected to close in Salesforce’s fiscal 2028, subject to Braze shareholder and regulatory approvals[^8k-crm-braze-20261020].
Ava: Braze shares closed up more than 51% on Tuesday, CNBC reports[^cnbc-crm-braze-20261020]. The Cash Flow Memo dated October 19 has Salesforce at 24 times free cash flow, on $9.2 billion of free cash flow[^memo-crm-20261019].
Ava: Netflix reported its third quarter on Tuesday. Per the shareholder letter, attached to an 8-K, revenue was about $12.9 billion, up 12%[^8k-nflx-q3-20261020]. Netflix now expects full-year revenue of $51.1 billion, which the letter says is 0.2% below the midpoint of its prior range[^8k-nflx-q3-20261020].
Ava: The letter puts this year’s advertising revenue at about $2.7 billion, against about $3 billion previously, and attributes the change to a slightly slower than expected rollout of some ad product capabilities[^8k-nflx-q3-20261020]. It lowered the full-year free cash flow forecast to about $12 billion, from $12.5 billion, due primarily to a real estate transaction expected to close in the fourth quarter[^8k-nflx-q3-20261020].
Ava: The letter’s fourth-quarter operating margin forecast of 26% includes about 1.2 percentage points of impact from Netflix’s recently announced headcount reductions[^8k-nflx-q3-20261020]. The same memo issue, on page 4, has Netflix at 22 times free cash flow, a figure that predates this report[^memo-nflx-20261019].
Ava: Comcast reported its third quarter on Thursday. Per the earnings release, attached to an 8-K, revenue was about $29.3 billion, down 6% as reported and up 0.5% on a pro forma basis[^8k-cmcsa-q3-20261022].
Ava: The release shows domestic broadband residential customer net losses of 144,000, and free cash flow of $4.2 billion for the quarter[^8k-cmcsa-q3-20261022]. On the earnings call, chief financial officer Jason Armstrong told analysts Comcast expects a fourth-quarter charge of over $1 billion, mostly related to its transformation efforts[^call-cmcsa-q3-20261022].
Ava: The Cash Flow Memo dated October 19 has Comcast at 7.7 times free cash flow, a figure that predates this report[^memo-cmcsa-20261019].
Ava: Next week’s earnings calendar. Verizon reports Monday, October 26[^earn-vz]. On Tuesday: Visa, PayPal and UPS[^earn-v][^earn-pypl][^earn-ups]. On Wednesday: Microsoft, Alphabet, GE Vernova and T-Mobile[^earn-msft][^earn-googl][^earn-gev][^earn-tmus]. On Thursday: Amazon, Merck, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar and Intel[^earn-amzn][^earn-mrk][^earn-lly][^earn-ma][^earn-cat][^earn-intc]. Exxon Mobil and Chevron report on Friday, October 30[^earn-xom][^earn-cvx].
Close
Ava: That’s the Weekend Update. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2644. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and send us a note through the Substack.
Disclaimer
Ava: This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.
Sources
* Bloom Energy Corporation. (2026, October 22). Bloom Energy reports record third quarter 2026 financial results and raises full year 2026 guidance [Press release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1664703/000162828026066890/ex991_q326financialresults.htm
* CNBC. (2026, October 22). Meta stock sinks nearly 7% as AI spend pushes free cash flow negative. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/meta-stock-q3-earnings-free-cash-flow.html
* CNBC. (2026, October 23). Doctors call Moderna, Merck cancer vaccine data a major advancement — despite Wall Street reaction. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/moderna-merck-cancer-vaccine-data.html
* Comcast Corporation. (2026, October 22). Comcast reports 3rd quarter 2026 results [Press release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166691/000162828026066783/ex991-9302026.htm
* Constantino, A. K., & Pramuk, J. (2026, October 22). Moderna shares plunge after cancer vaccine data leaks — despite positive results. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/moderna-stock-cancer-vaccine-data-leak.html
* Haddad, C. J. (2026, October 20). Salesforce announces $5.66 billion deal for Braze, sending BRZE stock soaring 51%. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/20/salesforce-braze-acquisition-deal.html
* Investopedia. (2026, October 23). Markets news, Oct. 23, 2026: Dow ends week higher despite Friday tumble; Nasdaq, S&P 500 log weekly losses. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/stock-market-today-dow-jones-s-and-p-500-10232026-12189475
* Merck & Co., Inc., & Moderna, Inc. (2026, October 22). Merck and Moderna will present results from landmark Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial for intismeran autogene plus KEYTRUDA (pembrolizumab) at ESMO 2026 Presidential Symposium [Press release]. https://www.merck.com/news/merck-and-moderna-will-present-results-from-landmark-phase-3-interpath-001-trial-for-intismeran-autogene-plus-keytruda-pembrolizumab-at-esmo-2026-presidential-symposium/
* Meta Platforms, Inc. (2026, October 21). Current report, Form 8-K (date of report October 19, 2026) [8-K]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026066700/meta-20261019.htm
* Meta Platforms, Inc. (2026, October 21). Meta reports third quarter 2026 results; announces establishment of new Class C common stock [Press release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026066700/meta-09302026xexhibit991.htm
* The Motley Fool. (2026, October 22). Comcast (CMCSA) Q3 2026 earnings call transcript. The Motley Fool. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/22/comcast-cmcsa-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/
* Netflix, Inc. (2026, October 20). Q3 2026 letter to shareholders [Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000290/ex991_q326.htm
* Salesforce, Inc. (2026, October 20). Salesforce signs definitive agreement to acquire Braze [Press release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1108524/000119312526425881/d516983dex991.htm
Internal data
Internal data is provided on a best efforts basis.
